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Fuentes de variabilidad en las principales economías occidentales

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En este trabajo se analiza la importancia relativa de los shocks de demanda y de oferta en los países del G7 más España y Suiza, mediante la técnica de los modelos VAR estructurales. Al encontrarse una relación de cointegración entre PIB e in.ación, se estima un modelo VECM para cada país, reduciéndose de esta forma el número de restricciones necesarias para identi.car las perturbaciones. Los resultados obtenidos señalan un importante papel de los shocks de oferta en la variabilidad del PIB, incluso en el corto plazo. Al ampliar el sistema con una magnitud monetaria los resultados son fundamentalmente similares. (Copyright: Fundación SEPI)

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Article provided by Fundación SEPI in its journal Investigaciones Economicas.

Volume (Year): 27 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 565-591

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Handle: RePEc:iec:inveco:v:27:y:2003:i:3:p:565-591

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Keywords: VECM; perturbaciones de demanda versus perturbaciones de oferta.;

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  1. Campbell, John Y. & Shiller, Robert J., 1988. "Interpreting cointegrated models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 505-522.
  2. Juan J. Dolado & J. David López-Salido & Juan L. Vega, 2000. "Unemployment and inflation persistence in Spain: Are there Phillips trade-offs?," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 267-291.
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  7. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  8. Bergman, Michael, 1996. "International evidence on the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1237-1258, June.
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  11. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 870, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  12. Javier Andrés & Ricardo Mestre & Javier Vallés, 1999. "Monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics in the Spanish economy," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 55-77.
  13. Balmaseda, Manuel & Dolado, Juan J & Lopez-Salido, J David, 2000. "The Dynamic Effects of Shocks to Labour Markets: Evidence from OECD Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 3-23, January.
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