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Sustainability of Portuguese Fiscal Policy in Historical Perspective

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  • Carlos Marinheiro

    (GEMF and Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra)

Abstract

This paper analyses the sustainability of Portuguese public finances, making use of a long dataset with more than a full century of observations. The use of such a long dataset is appropriate because both unit root and cointegration tests require a long period of data. The sustainability testing procedure is based on unit root and cointegration tests. We find considerable evidence in favour of sustainability for the 1903-2003 period. The overall conclusion of sustainability for the 1903-2003 period is not maintained for the more recent 1975-2003 period, which is characterised by the largest GDP deficit ratios of our sample. This latter period appears to signal a shift to an unsustainable path in Portuguese fiscal policy. Hence, our results suggest that fiscal consolidation efforts must, in fact, be continued in Portugal.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Marinheiro, 2005. "Sustainability of Portuguese Fiscal Policy in Historical Perspective," GEMF Working Papers 2005-01, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    • Handle: RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2005-01
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    Cited by:

    1. António Afonso & Peter Claeys & Ricardo Sousa, 2011. "Fiscal regime shifts in Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 10(2), pages 83-108, August.
    2. António Afonso & Ricardo Sousa, 2011. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR analysis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 10(1), pages 61-82, April.
    3. Jasper Lukkezen & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2012. "When is debt sustainable?," CPB Discussion Paper 212, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    4. Jarmulska, Barbara, 2016. "Analiza stabilności fiskalnej w Polsce w latach 1995-2014 [The Analysis of Fiscal Stability in Poland in the Years 1995-2014]," MPRA Paper 100830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Silva, Alexandre Manoel Angelo & Cândido Júnior, José Oswaldo, 2010. "É o mercado míope em relação á política fiscal brasileira?," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 64(4), December.
    6. António Afonso, 2013. "Anatomy of a fiscal débacle: the case of Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/01, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    7. Daniel Iulius Doaga, 2020. "Literature Survey Onsustainable Fiscal Policy Within The Countries Of Central And Eastern Europe," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 115-120, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal sustainability; sustainability of public debt; intertemporal budget constraint; government deficits and debt; Portugal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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