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The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR Analysis

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  • António Afonso
  • Ricardo M. Sousa

Abstract

In the last twenty years Portugal struggled to keep public finances under control, notably in containing primary spending. We use a new quarterly dataset covering 1979:1-2007:4, and estimate a Bayesian Structural Autoregression model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. The results show that positive government spending shocks, in general, have a negative effect on real GDP; lead to important “crowding-out” effects, by impacting negatively on private consumption and investment; and have a persistent and positive effect on the price level and the average cost of financing government debt. Positive government revenue shocks tend to have a negative impact on GDP; and lead to a fall in the price level. The evidence also shows the importance of explicitly considering the government debt dynamics in the model. Finally, a VAR counter-factual exercise confirms that unexpected positive government spending shocks lead to important “crowding-out” effects..

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon. in its series Working Papers with number 2009/09.

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Date of creation: Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp92009

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Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL
Web page: https://aquila.iseg.utl.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC

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Keywords: B-SVAR; fiscal policy; debt dynamics; Portugal.;

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References

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Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Research in fiscal policy: A cross section
    by pushmedia1 in The Ambrosini Critique on 2009-05-11 16:26:30
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Cited by:
  1. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2012. "How does fiscal policy react to wealth composition and asset prices?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 874-890.
  2. Pablo Burriel & Francisco de Castro & Daniel Garrote & Esther Gordo & Joan Paredes & Javier J. Pérez, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Shocks in the Euro Area and the US: An Empirical Assessment," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 251-285, 06.
  3. António Afonso & Peter Claeys & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "Fiscal Regime Shifts in Portugal," IREA Working Papers 200921, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2009.
  4. Reda, Cherif & Fuad, Hasanov, 2010. "Public Debt Dynamics and Debt Feedback," MPRA Paper 27918, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Mehrotra, Aaron & Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Eller, Markus, 2011. "The Economic transmission of fiscal policy shocks from Western to Eastern Europe," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  6. Agnello, L. & Furceri, D. & R.M, Sousa., 2011. "Fiscal Policy Discretion, Private Spending, and Crisis Episodes," Working papers 354, Banque de France.
  7. Mihai Ioan Mutascu & Dan Constantin Danuletiu, 2011. "Taxes And Economic Growth In Romania. A Var Approach," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(13), pages 10.
  8. Fuad Hasanov & Reda Cherif, 2012. "Public Debt Dynamics: The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocks," IMF Working Papers 12/230, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Rafael Ravnik & Ivan Zilic, 2011. "The use of SVAR analysis in determining the effects of ?scal shocks in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 35(1), pages 25-58.
  10. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Fiscal Consolidation and Income Inequality," NIPE Working Papers 34/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  11. Francisco de Castro & Daniel Garrote, 2012. "The effects of fiscal shocks on the exchange rate in the EMU and differences with the us," Banco de España Working Papers 1224, Banco de España.
  12. Raffaella Basile & Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano, 2011. "Can we Rely upon Fiscal Policy Estimates in Countries with Unreported Production of 15 Per Cent (or more) of GDP?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3521, CESifo Group Munich.
  13. António Afonso, 2013. "Anatomy of a fiscal débacle: the case of Portugal," Working Papers 2013/01, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon..
  14. Davide Furceri & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2009. "The Impact of Government Spending on the Private Sector: Crowding-out versus Crowding-in Effects"," NIPE Working Papers 6/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

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