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Cointegration Tests of PPP: Do they also Exhibit Erratic Behaviour?

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Christoph Hanck
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    Abstract

    We analyse whether tests of PPP exhibit erratic behaviour (as previously reported by Caporale et al., 2003) even when (possibly unwarranted) homogeneity and proportionality restrictions are not imposed, and trivariate cointegration (stage-three) tests between the nominal exchange rate, domestic and foreign price levels are carried out (instead of stationarity tests on the real exchange rate, as in stage-two tests). We examine the US dollar real exchange rate vis-à-vis 21 other currencies over a period of more than a century, and find that stage-three tests produce similar results to those for stage-two tests, namely the former also behave erratically. This confirms that neither of these traditional approaches to testing for PPP can solve the issue of PPP.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1811.

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    Date of creation: 2006
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    Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1811

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    Related research

    Keywords: Purchasing Power Parity (PPP); real exchange rate; cointegration; stationarity; parameter instability;

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    1. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier.
    2. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Mario Cerrato, 2004. "Panel Data Tests Of Ppp: A Critical Overview," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 04-18, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
    4. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    5. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June.
    6. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    7. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
    8. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1994. "Mean reversion in real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 251-256, November.
    9. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    10. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Pittis, Nikitas, 2002. "Unit Roots versus Other Types of Time Heterogeneity, Parameter Time Dependence and Superexogeneity," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 207-23, April.
    11. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1985. "International Capital Mobility and Crowding Out in the U.S. Economy: Imperfect Integration of Financial Markets or of Goods Markets?," NBER Working Papers 1773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Pittis, Nikitas & Sakellis, Panayiotis, 2003. "Testing for PPP: the erratic behaviour of unit root tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 277-284, August.
    13. Lothian, James R. & Taylor, Mark P., 1997. "Real exchange rate behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 945-954, December.
    14. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter, 1996. "A trend-resistant test for structural change based on OLS residuals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 175-185, January.
    15. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
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    Cited by:
    1. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hanck, Christoph, 2006. "Are PPP Tests Erratically Behaved? Some Panel Evidence," Technical Reports 2006,43, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.

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