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House prices and rents: an equilibrium asset pricing approach

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  • Juan Ayuso

    ()
    (Banco de España)

  • Fernando Restoy

    ()
    (Banco de España)

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    Abstract

    In this paper we use a relatively general intertemporal asset pricing model where housing services and consumption are non-separable to obtain a measure of the potential overvaluation of housing in relation to rents in Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States. The results show that part of the increase in real house prices during the late nineties can be seen as a return to equilibrium following some undershooting of house prices after previous peaks. However, more recently, marked increases in house prices have led price-to-rent ratios to well above equilibrium in all three countries by 2002. More specifically, the price-to-rent ratios were around 20% above equilibrium in Spain and the UK, and around 7% in the US. Part of that overvaluation "particularly in Spain and the UK" may be attributable to the sluggishness of supply in the presence of large demand shocks in this market and/or the slow adjustment of observed rents to the conditions prevailing in the housing market.

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/03/Fic/dt0304e.pdf
    File Function: First version, May 2003
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 0304.

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    Length: 33 pages
    Date of creation: May 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0304

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    1. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
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    7. Kenny, Geoff, 2003. "Asymmetric adjustment costs and the dynamics of housing supply," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1097-1111, December.
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    12. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 8143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Fernando Restoy & Philippe Weil, 1998. "Approximate Equilibrium Asset Prices," Sciences Po publications 6611, Sciences Po.
    14. repec:fth:harver:1421 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-57, April.
    16. DiPasquale Denise & Wheaton William C., 1994. "Housing Market Dynamics and the Future of Housing Prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-27, January.
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    Cited by:
    1. Markus K Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2006. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," FMG Discussion Papers dp579, Financial Markets Group.
    2. Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli & Lynn McAlevey, 2008. "House Prices and Bubbles in New Zealand," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 71-91, July.
    3. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions," NBER Working Papers 11643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Daniel Fernández-Kranz & Mark Hon, 2006. "A Cross-Section Analysis of the Income Elasticity of Housing Demand in Spain: Is There a Real Estate Bubble?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 449-470, June.
    5. Cameron, Gavin & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2006. "Was There a British House Price Bubble? Evidence from a Regional Panel," CEPR Discussion Papers 5619, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Salá Rios, Mercè, 2004. "Análisis territorial de la accesibilidad a la vivienda en España," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 22, pages 1-21, Diciembre.
    7. Gavin Cameron & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2005. "Booms, Busts and Ripples in British Regional Housing Markets," Macroeconomics 0512003, EconWPA.
    8. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2007. "House Prices and Rents: Socio-Economic Impacts and Prospects," Working Papers 07_01, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    9. José Francisco Bellod Redondo, 2011. "Detección de burbujas inmobiliarias: el caso español," Contribuciones a la Economía, Grupo Eumed.net (Universidad de Málaga), issue 2011-05, May.
    10. Kurz, Claudia & Hoffmann, Johannes, 2004. "A rental-equivalence index for owner-occupied housing in West Germany 1985 to 1998," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.

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