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A simple model of a speculative housing market

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  • Roberto Dieci

    ()

  • Frank Westerhoff

Abstract

We develop a simple model of a speculative housing market in which the demand for houses is influenced by expectations about future housing prices. Guided by empirical evidence, agents rely on extrapolative and regressive forecasting rules to form their expectations. The relative importance of these competing views evolves over time, subject to market circumstances. As it turns out, the dynamics of our model is driven by a two-dimensional nonlinear map which may display irregular boom and bust housing price cycles, as repeatedly observed in many actual markets. However, we also find that speculation may be a source of both stability and instability. --

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00191-011-0259-8
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Evolutionary Economics.

Volume (Year): 22 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 303-329

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Handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:22:y:2012:i:2:p:303-329

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Related research

Keywords: Housing markets; Speculation; Boom and bust cycles; Nonlinear dynamics; D84; R21; R31;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Franke, Reiner & Westerhoff, Frank, 2012. "Structural stochastic volatility in asset pricing dynamics: Estimation and model contest," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1193-1211.
  2. Gervai, Pál & Trautmann, László & Wieszt, Attila, 2010. "The mission and culture of the corporation," BERG Working Paper Series 74, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  3. Pan, Huiran & Wang, Chun, 2013. "House prices, bank instability, and economic growth: Evidence from the threshold model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1720-1732.
  4. Diego A. Salzman & Remco C.J. Zwinkels, 2013. "Behavioural Real Estate," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-088/IV/DSF57, Tinbergen Institute.
  5. Carsten Eckel, 2009. "International Trade and Retailing," CESifo Working Paper Series 2597, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Alfarano, Simone & Milakovic, Mishael, 2010. "Identification of Interaction Effects in Survey Expectations: A Cautionary Note," MPRA Paper 26002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Franke, Reiner & Westerhoff, Frank, 2011. "Why a simple herding model may generate the stylized facts of daily returns: Explanation and estimation," BERG Working Paper Series 83, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  8. Bexheti, Abdulmenaf, 2010. "Anti-crisis measures in the republic of Macedonia and their effects: Are they sufficient?," BERG Working Paper Series 70, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  9. Seregi, János & Lelovics, Zsuzsanna & Balogh, László, 2012. "The social welfare function of forests in the light of the theory of public goods," BERG Working Paper Series 87, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  10. Imami, Drini & Lami, Endrit & Kächelein, Holger, 2011. "Political cycles in income from privatization: The case of Albania," BERG Working Paper Series 77, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.

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