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Expectations, efficiency, and euphoria in the housing market

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  • Capozza, Dennis R.
  • Seguin, Paul J.

Abstract

This paper studies expectations of capital appreciation in the housing market. We show that expectations impounded in the rent/price ratio at the beginning of the decade successfully predict appreciation rates, but only if we first control for cross-sectional differences in the quality of rental versus owner-occupied housing. We also demonstrate that observed rent/price ratios contain a disequilibrium component that also has power to forecast subsequent appreciation rates. Finally, we provide evidence consistent with euphoria: participants in housing markets appear to overreact to income growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Regional Science and Urban Economics.

Volume (Year): 26 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3-4 (June)
Pages: 369-386

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Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:26:y:1996:i:3-4:p:369-386

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References

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  1. Dennis R. Capozza & Gregory M. Schwann, 1989. "The Asset Approach to Pricing Urban Land: Empirical Evidence," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 161-174.
  2. Robert J. Shiller & Karl E. Case, 1988. "The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 890, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1990. "The stochastic city," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 187-203, September.
  4. Meese Richard & Wallace Nancy, 1994. "Testing the Present Value Relation for Housing Prices: Should I Leave My House in San Francisco?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 245-266, May.
  5. Rose, Louis A., 1989. "Topographical constraints and urban land supply indexes," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 335-347, November.
  6. N. Gregory Mankiw & David N. Weil, 1988. "The Baby Boom, The Baby Bust, and the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 2794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Wheaton, William C, 1990. "Vacancy, Search, and Prices in a Housing Market Matching Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(6), pages 1270-92, December.
  8. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron, 1974. "The effects of dividend yield and dividend policy on common stock prices and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-22, May.
  9. Murphy, Kevin M & Topel, Robert H, 1985. "Estimation and Inference in Two-Step Econometric Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(4), pages 370-79, October.
  10. Schwert, G.W. & Seguin, P.J., 1988. "Heteroskedasticity In Stock Returns," Papers bc_88-02, Rochester, Business - General.
  11. Goetzmann, W.N., 1990. "Testing The Predictive Power Of Dividend Yields," Papers fb-_90-12, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  12. Ozanne, Larry & Thibodeau, Thomas, 1983. "Explaining metropolitan housing price differences," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 51-66, January.
  13. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
  14. Merton H. Miller & Franco Modigliani, 1961. "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 411.
  15. Miller, Merton H & Scholes, Myron S, 1982. "Dividends and Taxes: Some Empirical Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1118-41, December.
  16. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
  17. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-86.
  18. Karl E. Case, 1989. "The Asset Approach to Pricing Urban Land: Empirical Evidence," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 175-176.
  19. Hamilton, Bruce W. & Schwab, Robert M., 1985. "Expected appreciation in urban housing markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 103-118, July.
  20. Capozza Dennis R. & Sick Gordon A., 1994. "The Risk Structure of Land Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 297-319, May.
  21. Capozza, Dennis R & Schwann, Gregory M, 1990. "The Value of Risk in Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 117-40, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the future," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 203-217, December.
  2. Hoon Cho & Kyung-Hwan Kim & James Shilling, 2012. "Seemingly Irrational but Predictable Price Formation in Seoul’s Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 526-542, May.
  3. Roger Congleton, 2012. "On the political economy and limits of crisis insurance: the case of the 2008–11 bailouts," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 399-423, March.
  4. Elfakhani, Said & Visiting Professor & Wionzek, Ritchie J. & Chaudhury, Mohammed, 1999. "Thin trading and mispricing profit opportunities in the Canadian commodity futures," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 37-58.
  5. Suzi Kerr & Andrew Aitken & Arthur Grimes, 2004. "Land Taxes and Revenue Needs as Communities Grow and Decline: Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers 04_02, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  6. W. Erwin Diewert & Alice O. Nakamura, 2009. "Accounting for housing in a CPI," Working Papers 09-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  7. Gunther Maier & Shanaka Herath, 2009. "Real Estate Market Efficiency: A Survey of Literature," SRE-Disc sre-disc-2009_07, Institute for the Environment and Regional Development, Department of Socioeconomics, Vienna University of Economics and Business.
  8. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Patric H. Hendershott, . "Uses of Equilibrium Models in Real Estate Research," Research in Financial Economics 9612, Ohio State University.
  10. Arthur Grimes & Suzi Kerr & Andrew Aitken, 2005. "Bi-Directional Impacts of Economic, Social and Environmental Changes and the New Zealand Housing Market," Urban/Regional 0509012, EconWPA.
  11. Arthur Grimes & Robert Sourell & Andrew Aitken, 2005. "Regional Variation in Rental Costs for Larger Households," Working Papers 05_02, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  12. Joshua Gallin, 2004. "The long-run relationship between house prices and rents," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Wayne Archer & Brent Smith, 2013. "Residential Mortgage Default: The Roles of House Price Volatility, Euphoria and the Borrower’s Put Option," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 355-378, February.
  14. Jim Clayton, 1998. "Further Evidence on Real Estate Market Efficiency," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 15(1), pages 41-58.
  15. Dospinescu, Andrei Silviu, 2011. "Analyzing the Dynamics of Relative Prices on a Market with Speculative and Non-Speculative Agents Based on the Evolutionary Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 72-87, March.
  16. Vyacheslav Mikhed & Petr Zemčík, 2009. "Testing for Bubbles in Housing Markets: A Panel Data Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 366-386, May.
  17. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken & Suzi Kerr, 2004. "House Price Efficiency: Expectations, Sales, Symmetry," Urban/Regional 0408001, EconWPA.
  18. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2007. "House Prices and Rents: Socio-Economic Impacts and Prospects," Working Papers 07_01, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.

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