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Dividends, Total Cash Flow to Shareholders, and Predictive Return Regressions

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Author Info

  • Donald Robertson

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Stephen Wright

    (Birkbeck College, University of London)

Abstract

This paper provides new evidence on the predictive power of dividend yields for U.S. aggregate stock returns. Following Miller and Modigliani, we construct a measure of the dividend yield that includes all cash flows to shareholders. We show that this alternative cash-flow yield has strong and stable predictive power for returns, and appears robust to a battery of tests that have been proposed in recent critiques of the predictability literature. © 2006 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/rest.2006.88.1.91
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 88 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 91-99

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:88:y:2006:i:1:p:91-99

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Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/

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Web: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journal-home.tcl?issn=00346535

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Cited by:
  1. Demetrios Eliades & Olaf Weeken, 2005. "The stock market and capital accumulation: an application to UK data," Bank of England working papers 251, Bank of England.
  2. Park, Cheolbeom, 2010. "When does the dividend-price ratio predict stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 81-101, January.
  3. Chang‐Jin Kim & Cheolbeom Park, 2013. "Disappearing Dividends: Implications for the Dividend–Price Ratio and Return Predictability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 933-952, 08.
  4. Cheolbeom Park, 2006. "The Persistence and Predictive Power of the Dividend-Price Ratio," Departmental Working Papers wp0603, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics.
  5. Larrain, Borja & Yogo, Motohiro, 2008. "Does firm value move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in cash flow," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 200-226, January.

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