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Equity Prices, Productivity Growth, And ‘The New Economy’

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  • Jakob B Madsen
  • E Philip Davis

Abstract

The increase in equity prices over the 1990s has to a large degree been attributed to permanently higher productivity growth that is derived from the ‘new economy’ and related research and development (R&D) expenditures. This paper establishes a rational expectations model of technology innovations and equity prices, which shows that under plausible assumptions,productivity advances can only have temporary effects on fundamentals of equity prices. Using data on R&D capital and fixed capital productivity for 11 OECD countries, the evidence give strong support for the model by suggesting that technology innovations indeed have only temporary effects on equity returns.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University in its series Economics and Finance Discussion Papers with number 03-04.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bru:bruedp:03-04

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Postal: Brunel University, Uxbridge, Middlesex UB8 3PH, UK

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  1. Jason G. Cummins, 2003. "A New Approach to the Valuation of Intangible Capital," NBER Working Papers 9924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," NBER Working Papers 8221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
  4. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2003. "Average Debt and Equity Returns: Puzzling?," Levine's Working Paper Archive 506439000000000367, David K. Levine.
  5. Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2003. "Predicting the Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios," Management Science, INFORMS, INFORMS, vol. 49(5), pages 639-654, May.
  6. Ravi Jagannathan & Ellen R. McGrattan & Anna Scherbina, 2001. "The Declining U.S. Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 8172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Donald Robertson & Stephen Wright, 2006. "Dividends, Total Cash Flow to Shareholders, and Predictive Return Regressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 91-99, February.
  8. Hulten, Charles R, 1975. "Technical Change and the Reproducibility of Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 956-65, December.
  9. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Manishi Prasad & Peter Wahlqvist & Rich Shikiar & Ya-Chen Tina Shih, 2004. "A," PharmacoEconomics, Springer Healthcare | Adis, Springer Healthcare | Adis, vol. 22(4), pages 225-244.
  11. repec:yor:yorken:01/18 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 1-32, March.
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