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Long-Run Regressions: Theory and Application to US Asset Markets

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Author Info
Charlotte S. Hansen (Zicklin School of Business,Baruch College/CUNY)
Bjorn E. Tuypens (Oak Hill Platinum Partners, L.L.C.)

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Abstract

The question of long-run predictability in the aggregate US stock market is still unsettled. This is due to the lack of a robust method to judge the statistical significance of long-run regressions under the maintained hypothesis. By developing a spectral theory of long-run regressions with both long-run dependent and independent variables, we demonstrate a version of Engle's (1974) conjecture that asymptotically correct standard errors can be computed by multiplying the ordinary least squares standard errors by the square root of 2/3 times the length of the forecast horizon. We generalize Stambaugh's (1999) bias formula to the long-run regression model proposed in this paper. In addition, we find, that for persistent predictive variables, the OLS estimator in our regression model is more efficient than the estimator in the predictive regressions suggested by Campbell and Shiller (1988) and Hodrick (1992). Application of our method shows thatthe long-run earnings yield significantly predicts up to 69% of the variation in the 10-year S&P 500 real return, and up to 49% of long-run bond returns.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0410018.

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Length: 85 pages
Date of creation: 28 Oct 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0410018

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 85
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Related research
Keywords: Forecasting; stock returns; spectral analysis; Hansen-Hodrick standard errors;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2006. "Non-linear long horizon returns predictability: evidence from six south-east Asian markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 95-111, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Charlotte S. Hansen & Bjorn E. Tuypens, 2004. "Proxying for Expected Returns with Price Earnings Ratios," Finance 0410019, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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