Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Long-Run Regressions: Theory and Application to US Asset Markets

Contents:

Author Info

  • Charlotte S. Hansen

    (Zicklin School of Business,Baruch College/CUNY)

  • Bjorn E. Tuypens

    (Oak Hill Platinum Partners, L.L.C.)

Abstract

The question of long-run predictability in the aggregate US stock market is still unsettled. This is due to the lack of a robust method to judge the statistical significance of long-run regressions under the maintained hypothesis. By developing a spectral theory of long-run regressions with both long-run dependent and independent variables, we demonstrate a version of Engle's (1974) conjecture that asymptotically correct standard errors can be computed by multiplying the ordinary least squares standard errors by the square root of 2/3 times the length of the forecast horizon. We generalize Stambaugh's (1999) bias formula to the long-run regression model proposed in this paper. In addition, we find, that for persistent predictive variables, the OLS estimator in our regression model is more efficient than the estimator in the predictive regressions suggested by Campbell and Shiller (1988) and Hodrick (1992). Application of our method shows thatthe long-run earnings yield significantly predicts up to 69% of the variation in the 10-year S&P 500 real return, and up to 49% of long-run bond returns.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/fin/papers/0410/0410018.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0410018.

as in new window
Length: 85 pages
Date of creation: 28 Oct 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0410018

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 85
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: Forecasting; stock returns; spectral analysis; Hansen-Hodrick standard errors;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Richardson, Matthew & Stock, James H., 1989. "Drawing inferences from statistics based on multiyear asset returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 323-348, December.
  2. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2001. "Disappearing dividends: changing firm characteristics or lower propensity to pay?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 3-43, April.
  3. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Moon, Hyungsik Roger & Xiao, Zhijie, 2001. "How To Estimate Autoregressive Roots Near Unity," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(01), pages 29-69, February.
  4. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," NBER Working Papers 2511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Charlotte S. Hansen & Bjorn E. Tuypens, 2004. "Proxying for Expected Returns with Price Earnings Ratios," Finance, EconWPA 0410019, EconWPA.
  6. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
  7. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 1999. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth and Expected Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 2223, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2003. "Predicting the Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(5), pages 639-654, May.
  9. Goetzman, W.N. & Jorion, P., 1992. "Testing the Predictive Power of Dividend Yields," Papers 93-03, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  10. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  12. Campbell, John Y. & Yogo, Motohiro, 2006. "Efficient tests of stock return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 27-60, July.
  13. Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Dean Corbae & Sam Ouliaris & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1997. "Band Spectral Regression with Trending Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1163, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  15. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1295, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  16. Engle, Robert F, 1974. "Band Spectrum Regression," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, February.
  17. Pontiff, Jeffrey & Schall, Lawrence D., 1998. "Book-to-market ratios as predictors of market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 141-160, August.
  18. Donald W. K. Andrews, 2004. "the Block-Block Bootstrap: Improved Asymptotic Refinements," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 72(3), pages 673-700, 05.
  19. Walter Torous & Rossen Valkanov & Shu Yan, 2004. "On Predicting Stock Returns with Nearly Integrated Explanatory Variables," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 937-966, October.
  20. Owen Lamont, 1998. "Earnings and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1563-1587, October.
  21. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2004. "Predicting returns with financial ratios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 209-235, November.
  22. Nelson, Charles R & Kim, Myung J, 1993. " Predictable Stock Returns: The Role of Small Sample Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 641-61, June.
  23. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-86.
  24. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
  25. Robert F. Stambaugh, 1999. "Predictive Regressions," NBER Technical Working Papers 0240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Lanne, M., 2000. "Testing the Predictability of Stock Returns," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 488, Department of Economics.
  27. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 857-80, November.
  28. Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy Simin, 2002. "Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?," NBER Working Papers 9143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Peter C.B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1222, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  30. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
  31. Wolf, Michael, 2000. "Stock Returns and Dividend Yields Revisited: A New Way to Look at an Old Problem," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 18-30, January.
  32. Merton H. Miller & Franco Modigliani, 1961. "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 411.
  33. Richardson, Matthew & Smith, Tom, 1991. "Tests of Financial Models in the Presence of Overlapping Observations," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 227-54.
  34. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron, 1974. "The effects of dividend yield and dividend policy on common stock prices and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-22, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2009. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us About Exchange Rate Predictability?," Working Papers UWEC-2009-04, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  2. David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2006. "Non-linear long horizon returns predictability: evidence from six south-east Asian markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 95-111, June.
  3. Charlotte S. Hansen & Bjorn E. Tuypens, 2004. "Proxying for Expected Returns with Price Earnings Ratios," Finance, EconWPA 0410019, EconWPA.
  4. Qiu, Mei & Pinfold, John F. & Rose, Lawrence C., 2011. "Predicting foreign exchange movements using historic deviations from PPP," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 485-497, October.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0410018. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.