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Heteroskedasticity in Stock Returns

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  • Schwert, G William
  • Seguin, Paul J

Abstract

The authors use predictions of aggregate stock return variances from daily data to estimate time-varying monthly variances for size-ranked portfolios. The authors propose and estimate a single factor model of heteroskedasticity for portfolio returns. This model implies time-varying betas. Implications of heteroskedasticity and time-varying betas for tests of the capital asset pricing model are then documented. Accounting for heteroskedasticity increases the evidence that risk-adjusted returns are related to firm size. The authors also estimate a constant correlation model. Portfolio volatilities predicted by this model are similar to those predicated by more complex multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity procedures. Copyright 1990 by American Finance Association.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 45 (1990)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 1129-55

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:45:y:1990:i:4:p:1129-55

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  1. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December.
  2. Robert C. Merton, 1980. "On Estimating the Expected Return on the Market: An Exploratory Investigation," NBER Working Papers 0444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Schwert, G.W., 1989. "Stock Volatility And The Crash Of '87," Papers 89-01, Rochester, Business - General.
  4. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
  5. Skinner, Douglas J., 1989. "Options markets and stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 61-78, June.
  6. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  7. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290.
  8. Murphy, Kevin M & Topel, Robert H, 2002. "Estimation and Inference in Two-Step Econometric Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 88-97, January.
  9. Johnson, Herb & Shanno, David, 1987. "Option Pricing when the Variance Is Changing," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 143-151, June.
  10. Wiggins, James B., 1987. "Option values under stochastic volatility: Theory and empirical estimates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 351-372, December.
  11. Kraus, Alan & Litzenberger, Robert H, 1976. "Skewness Preference and the Valuation of Risk Assets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1085-1100, September.
  12. Gibbons, Michael R. & Shanken, Jay, 1987. "Subperiod aggregation and the power of multivariate tests of portfolio efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 389-394, December.
  13. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December.
  14. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  15. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "A multivariate generalized ARCH approach to modeling risk premia in forward foreign exchange rate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 309-324, September.
  16. Roll, Richard, 1977. "A critique of the asset pricing theory's tests Part I: On past and potential testability of the theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 129-176, March.
  17. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February.
  18. Chan, K C & Chen, Nai-Fu, 1988. " An Unconditional Asset-Pricing Test and the Role of Firm Size as an Instrumental Variable for Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 309-25, June.
  19. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
  20. Giaccotto, Carmelo & Ali, Mukhtar M, 1982. " Optimum Distribution-Free Tests and Further Evidence of Heteroscedasticity in the Market Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(5), pages 1247-57, December.
  21. J. A. Hausman, 1976. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Working papers 185, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  22. Scholes, Myron & Williams, Joseph, 1977. "Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-327, December.
  23. Ohlson, James A. & Penman, Stephen H., 1985. "Volatility increases subsequent to stock splits: An empirical aberration," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 251-266, June.
  24. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, 09.
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