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Heteroskedasticity in Stock Returns

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  • G. William Schwert
  • Paul J. Seguin

Abstract

We use predictions of aggregate stock return variances from daily data to estimate time varying monthly variances for size-ranked portfolios. We propose and estimate a single factor model of heteroskedasticity for portfolio returns. This model implies time-varying betas. Implications of heteroskedasticity and time-varying betas for tests of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) are then documented. Accounting for heteroskedasticity increases the evidence that risk-adjusted returns are related to firm size. We also estimate a constant correlation model. Portfolio volatilities predicted by this model are similar to those predicted by more complex multivariate generalized-autoregressive- conditional- heteroskedasticity (GARCH) procedures.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2956.

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Date of creation: Feb 1991
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Publication status: published as The Journal of Finance, Vol. XLV, No. 4, pp. 1129-1155, (September 1990).
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2956

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  10. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "A multivariate generalized ARCH approach to modeling risk premia in forward foreign exchange rate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 309-324, September.
  11. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
  12. Gibbons, Michael R. & Shanken, Jay, 1987. "Subperiod aggregation and the power of multivariate tests of portfolio efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 389-394, December.
  13. Barone-Adesi, Giovanni & Talwar, Prem P, 1983. "Market Models and Heteroscedasticity of Residual Security Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 163-68, April.
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  16. Ohlson, James A. & Penman, Stephen H., 1985. "Volatility increases subsequent to stock splits: An empirical aberration," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 251-266, June.
  17. Donald B. Keim & Robert F. Stambaugh, . "Predicting Returns in the Stock and Bond Markets," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 15-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  18. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  19. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
  21. Chan, K C & Chen, Nai-Fu, 1988. " An Unconditional Asset-Pricing Test and the Role of Firm Size as an Instrumental Variable for Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(2), pages 309-25, June.
  22. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, 09.
  23. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  24. Giaccotto, Carmelo & Ali, Mukhtar M, 1982. " Optimum Distribution-Free Tests and Further Evidence of Heteroscedasticity in the Market Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(5), pages 1247-57, December.
  25. Scholes, Myron & Williams, Joseph, 1977. "Estimating betas from nonsynchronous data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-327, December.
  26. Martin, John D & Klemkosky, Robert C, 1975. "Evidence of Heteroscedasticity in the Market Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(1), pages 81-86, January.
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