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Real Estate "Cycles": Some Fundamentals

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Author Info
William C. Wheaton
Abstract

This paper demonstrates that different types of real estate can have very different cyclic properties. Empirically, it is shown that they do, and the question is posed as to what might distinguish between property markets where movements are largely stable responses to repeated economic shocks and those undergoing a continuing endogenous oscillation. A stock-flow model is built in which the future expectations of agents, the development lag, the degree of durability and market elasticities all can vary. Experiments reveal the dynamic behavior of the model varies quite sharply with all these factors. Forward forecasting by agents leads to stability, while myopic behavior promotes oscillations. Oscillations are also much more likely when supply is more elastic than demand, development lags are long, and asset durability is low. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1540-6229.00772
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Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

Volume (Year): 27 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 209-230
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Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:27:y:1999:i:2:p:209-230

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1080-8620

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  2. Gunther Maier & Shanaka Herath, 2009. "Real Estate Market Efficiency: A Survey of Literature," SRE-Disc sre-disc-2009_07, Department of City and Regional Development, Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jim Clayton & David Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2009. "Commercial Real Estate Valuation: Fundamentals Versus Investor Sentiment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 5-37, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. François Ortalo-Magné & Sven Rady, 2005. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraint," Discussion Papers 50, SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  5. McCartney, John, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of Development Cycles in the Dublin Office Market 1976-2007," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2008(4-Winter), pages 68-92. [Downloadable!]
  6. Robert Edelstein & Desmond Tsang, 2007. "Dynamic Residential Housing Cycles Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 295-313, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Charles Leung, 2007. "Equilibrium Correlations of Asset Price and Return," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 233-256, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Kenneth K. Chow & Matthew S. Yiu & Charles Ka Yui Leung & Dickson C. Tam, 2008. "Does the DiPasquale-Wheaton Model Explain the House Price Dynamics in China Cities?," Working Papers 212008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jon Southard, 2005. "Going where the data is," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Real estate indicators and financial stability, volume 21, pages 243-254 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ortalo-Magné, François & Rady, Sven, 2005. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints (Revised Version)," Discussion Papers in Economics 494, University of Munich, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Leung, 2008. "Asset Price Spillover, Collateral and Crises: with an Application to Property Market Policy," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 351-385, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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