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Commodity markets, price limiters and speculative price dynamics

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  • He, Xue-Zhong
  • Westerhoff, Frank H.

Abstract

We develop a behavioral commodity market model with consumers, producers and heterogeneous speculators to characterize the nature of commodity price fluctuations and to explore the efectiveness of price stabilization schemes. Within our model, nonlinear interactions between market participants can create either bull or bear markets, or irregular price fluctuations between bulland bear markets. Both the imposition of a bottoming price level (to support producers) or a topping price level (to protect consumers) can reduce market price volatility. However, simple policy rules, such as price limiters, may have unexpected consequences in a complex environment: a minimum price level decreases the average price while a maximum price limit increases the average price. In addition, price limiters influence the price dynamics in an intricate way and may cause volatility clustering.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 29 (2005)
Issue (Month): 9 (September)
Pages: 1577-1596

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:29:y:2005:i:9:p:1577-1596

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hermsen, Oliver & Witte, Björn-Christopher & Westerhoff, Frank, 2009. "Disclosure requirements, the release of new information and market efficiency: new insights from agent-based models," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-51, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  2. Tramontana, Fabio & Westerhoff, Frank & Gardini, Laura, 2010. "On the complicated price dynamics of a simple one-dimensional discontinuous financial market model with heterogeneous interacting traders," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 187-205, June.
  3. Huang, Weihong & Zheng, Huanhuan & Chia, Wai-Mun, 2010. "Financial crises and interacting heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1105-1122, June.
  4. Dirk G Baur & Kristoffer Glover, 2012. "A Gold Bubble?," Working Paper Series 175, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  5. Ellen, Saskia ter & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2010. "Oil price dynamics: A behavioral finance approach with heterogeneous agents," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1427-1434, November.
  6. Westerhoff, Frank & Franke, Reiner, 2012. "Agent-based models for economic policy design: Two illustrative examples," BERG Working Paper Series 88, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  7. Ned Corron & Xue-Zhong He & Frank Westerhoff, 2007. "Butter mountains, milk lakes and optimal price limiters," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(15), pages 1131-1136.
  8. Athanasiou, George & Kotsios, Stelios, 2008. "An algorithmic approach to exchange rate stabilization," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1246-1260, November.
  9. Mine Caglar, 2011. "Stock Price Processes with Infinite Source Poisson Agents," Papers 1106.6300, arXiv.org.
  10. Athanasiou, George & Karafyllis, Iasson & Kotsios, Stelios, 2008. "Price stabilization using buffer stocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1212-1235, April.
  11. Sanjeev K. Routray, 2006. "Two Kinds of Activism: Reflections on Citizenship in Globalising Delhi," Working Papers id:463, eSocialSciences.
  12. Arango, Santiago & Larsen, Erik, 2011. "Cycles in deregulated electricity markets: Empirical evidence from two decades," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2457-2466, May.
  13. Weihong HUANG & Zhenxi CHEN, 2012. "Regional Financial Markets With Common Currency," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 1210, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre.
  14. Manzan, Sebastiano & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2007. "Heterogeneous expectations, exchange rate dynamics and predictability," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 111-128, September.
  15. Weihong HUANG & Zhenxi CHEN, 2012. "Heterogeneous Agents in Multi-markets: A Coupled Map Lattices Approach," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 1211, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre.
  16. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Labys, Walter C., 2006. "Evidence for chaotic dependence between US inflation and commodity prices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 256-266, March.
  17. Asfaha, Samuel, 2007. "National Revenue Funds: Their Efficacy for Fiscal Stability and Intergenerational Equity," MPRA Paper 7656, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  18. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Heterogeneous speculators, endogenous fluctuations and interacting markets: A model of stock prices and exchange rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 743-764, April.

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