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Housing market dynamics: Evidence of mean reversion and downward rigidity

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  • Gao, Andre
  • Lin, Zhenguo
  • Na, Carrie Fangzhou
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    Abstract

    House prices often exhibit serial correlation and mean reversion. Using two large panel datasets, this paper analyzes the price dynamics in two significantly different types of markets, cyclical (or volatile) and non-cyclical (or tame), by applying an autoregressive mean reversion (ARMR) model. Our results show that cyclical markets have larger AR coefficients than non-cyclical markets. As a result, house prices in cyclical markets tend to have larger price cycles. We also find that the upward periods have larger AR coefficients than the downward periods. This demonstrates that house prices are likely to overshoot the equilibrium in appreciating markets while experiencing downward rigidity during periods of decline. The model developed in this paper can produce a forecast with rich house price dynamics across markets. Our results can also be used to determine how house prices in overvalued markets will ultimately adjust.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Housing Economics.

    Volume (Year): 18 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 3 (September)
    Pages: 256-266

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:18:y:2009:i:3:p:256-266

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622881

    Related research

    Keywords: Housing market dynamics Fundamental price Overvaluation Mean reversion;

    References

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    1. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," NBER Working Papers 2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Saiz, Albert, 2008. "Housing supply and housing bubbles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 198-217, September.
    3. Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2005. "Equilibrium Correlation of Asset Price and Return," Discussion Papers 00017, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
    4. Malpezzi, Stephen, 1999. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-62, March.
    5. Oikarinen, Elias, 2009. "Household borrowing and metropolitan housing price dynamics - Empirical evidence from Helsinki," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 126-139, June.
    6. Joshua Gallin, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Income: Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 417-438, 09.
    7. Vyacheslav Mikhed & Petr Zemcik, 2007. "Do House Prices Reflect Fundamentals? Aggregate and Panel Data Evidence," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp337, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
    8. Meese Richard & Wallace Nancy, 1994. "Testing the Present Value Relation for Housing Prices: Should I Leave My House in San Francisco?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 245-266, May.
    9. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2007. "Arbitrage in Housing Markets," NBER Working Papers 13704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Meen, Geoffrey, 2002. "The Time-Series Behavior of House Prices: A Transatlantic Divide?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, March.
    11. Sing, Tien-Foo & Tsai, I-Chun & Chen, Ming-Chi, 2006. "Price dynamics in public and private housing markets in Singapore," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 305-320, December.
    12. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack, 2004. "An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-32, 03.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Cheng, Ping & Lin, Zhenguo & Liu, Yingchun, 2010. "Illiquidity, transaction cost, and optimal holding period for real estate: Theory and application," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 109-118, June.
    2. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2009. "A simple model of a speculative housing market," BERG Working Paper Series 62, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    3. Gabriele Galati & Federica Teppa & Rob Alessie, 2013. "Heterogeneity in house price dynamics," DNB Working Papers 371, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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