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Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership

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Author Info
Shiller, Robert J. (Yale U)
Abstract

This paper looks at a broad array of evidence concerning the recent boom in home prices, and considers what this means for future home prices and the economy. It does not appear possible to explain the boom in terms of fundamentals such as rents or construction costs. A psychological theory, that represents the boom as taking place because of a feedback mechanism or social epidemic that encourages a view of housing as an important investment opportunity, fits the evidence better. Three case studies of past booms are considered for comparison: the US housing boom of 1950, the US farmland boom of the 1970s, and the temporary interruption 2004-5 of the UK housing boom. The paper concludes that while it is possible that prices will continue to go up as is commonly expected, there is a high probability of steady and substantial real home price declines extending over years to come.

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File URL: http://www.econ.yale.edu/ddp/ddp25/ddp0028.pdf
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Paper provided by Yale University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 28.

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Date of creation: Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:yaleco:28

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
R21 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2002. "The Impact of Zoning on Housing Affordability," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1948, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  3. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 8143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 83-104, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2008. "Permanent and Transitory Dynamics in House Prices and Consumption: Cross-Country Evidence," Working Papers 2, University of Torino, Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato". [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2008. "International shocks and national house prices," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 14-2008, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Taylor D. Nadauld & Shane M. Sherlund, 2009. "The role of the securitization process in the expansion of subprime credit," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  4. Elias Oikarinen, 2008. "Interaction between housing prices and household borrowing - the Finnish case," Discussion Papers 29, Aboa Centre for Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Christopher W. Crowe, 2009. "Irrational Exuberance in the U.S. Housing Market: Were Evangelicals Left Behind?," IMF Working Papers 09/57, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. John R. Conlon, 2008. "Should Central Banks Burst Bubbles? Some Microeconomic Issues," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000002330, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
  7. Elias Oikarinen, 2008. "Interaction between Housing Prices and Household Borrowing in Finland," Discussion Papers 1145, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  8. Hott, Christian, 2009. "Explaining House Price Fluctuations," Working Papers 2009-5, Swiss National Bank. [Downloadable!]
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