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Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Markets

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  • Craig Burnside
  • Martin Eichenbaum
  • Sergio Rebelo

Abstract

Some booms in housing prices are followed by busts. Others are not. It is generally difficult to find observable fundamentals that are useful for predicting whether a boom will turn into a bust or not. We develop a model consistent with these observations. Agents have heterogeneous expectations about long-run fundamentals but change their views because of "social dynamics." Agents with tighter priors are more likely to convert others to their beliefs. Boom-bust episodes typically occur when skeptical agents happen to be correct. The booms that are not followed by busts typically occur when optimistic agents happen to be correct.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16734.

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Date of creation: Jan 2011
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16734

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References

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  1. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Raven E. Saks, 2006. "Urban growth and housing supply," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 71-89, January.
  2. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Muhamet Yildiz, 2006. "Learning and Disagreement in an Uncertain World," NBER Working Papers 12648, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2010. "Ideological Segregation Online and Offline," NBER Working Papers 15916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2006. "Housing Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 12787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Quigley, John M. & Raphael, Steven, 2006. "Regulation and the High Cost of Housing in California," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt3hh7s35m, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
  6. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Momentum traders in the housing market: survey evidence and a search model," NBER Working Papers 14669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Raven E. Saks, 2005. "Why Have Housing Prices Gone Up?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2061, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  8. Gadi Barlevy & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2010. "Mortgage choices and housing speculation," Working Paper Series WP-2010-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  9. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2010. "The Great Recession: Lessons from Microeconomic Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 51-56, May.
  10. Sendhil Mullainathan & Andrei Shleifer, 2005. "The Market for News," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1031-1053, September.
  11. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1987. "On the Inception of Rational Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 697-700, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2011. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 17224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Hiebert, Paul, 2011. "Do house price developments spillover across euro area countries? Evidence from a global VAR," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 299-314.
  3. Sandra Gomes & Caterina Mendicino, 2011. "Housing Market Dynamics: Any News?," Working Papers w201121, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  4. Wilko Bolt & Maria Demertzis & Cees Diks & Marco van der Leij, 2011. "Complex Methods in Economics: An Example of Behavioral Heterogeneity in House Prices," DNB Working Papers 329, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  5. S. Boragan Aruoba & Morris A. Davis & Randall Wright, 2012. "Homework in Monetary Economics: Inflation, Home Production, and the Production of Homes," NBER Working Papers 18276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Alessandro Spelta & Guido Ascari & Nicolò Pecora, 2012. "Boom and Burst in Housing Market with Heterogeneous Agents," Quaderni di Dipartimento 177, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
  7. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs E:47/2012, Bank of Finland.

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