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Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership

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  • Robert Shiller
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    Abstract

    This paper looks at a broad array of evidence concerning the recent boom in home prices, and considers what this means for future home prices and the economy. It does not appear possible to explain the boom in terms of fundamentals such as rents or construction costs. A psychological theory, that represents the boom as taking place because of a feedback mechanism or social epidemic that encourages a view of housing as an important investment opportunity, fits the evidence better. Three case studies of past booms are considered for comparison: the US housing boom of 1950, the US farmland boom of the 1970s, and the temporary interruption 2004-5 of the UK housing boom.

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    File URL: http://icfpub.som.yale.edu/publications/2557
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Yale School of Management in its series Yale School of Management Working Papers with number amz2557.

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    Date of creation: 01 Sep 2007
    Date of revision: 01 Nov 2007
    Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:amz2557

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    Web page: http://icf.som.yale.edu/
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    Related research

    Keywords: home ownership; housing prices; UK housing; US housing;

    References

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    1. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, . "The Impact of Zoning on Housing Affordability," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 395, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
    2. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion And Seller Behavior: Evidence From The Housing Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(4), pages 1233-1260, November.
    3. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Low Interest Rates and High Asset Prices: An Interpretation in Terms of Changing Popular Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1632, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Leo Grebler & David M. Blank & Louis Winnick, 1956. "Capital Formation in Residential Real Estate: Trends and Prospects," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number greb56-1.
    5. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," NBER Working Papers 2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Robert J. Shiller, 2002. "From Efficient Market Theory to Behavioral Finance," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1385, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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