Speculative Behaviour and Complex Asset Price Dynamics
AbstractThis paper analyses the dynamics of a model of a share market consisting of two groups of traders: fundamentalists, who form rational expectations on the fundamental value of the asset, and chartists, who base their trading decisions on an analysis of past price trends. The model is reduced to a two-dimensional map whose dynamic behaviour is analysed in detail, particularly with respect to global dynamical behaviour. The dynamics are affected by parameters measuring the strength of fundamentalist demand and the speed with which chartists adjust their estimate of the trend to past price changes. The parameter space is characterized according to the local stability/instability of the equilibrium point as well as the noninvertibility of the map. The method of critical curves of noninvertible maps is used to understand and describe the range of global bifurcations that can occur. It is also shown how the knowledge of deterministic dynamics uncovered here can aid in understanding stochastic versions of the model.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 49.
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2001
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: PO Box 123, Broadway, NSW 2007, Australia
Phone: +61 2 9514 7777
Fax: +61 2 9514 7711
Web page: http://www.business.uts.edu.au/qfrc/index.html
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lux, Thomas, 1998. "The socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of return distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 143-165, January.
- Goldman, M Barry & Beja, Avraham, 1979. "Market Prices vs. Equilibrium Prices: Returns' Variance, Serial Correlation, and the Role of the Specialist," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(3), pages 595-607, June.
- Zeeman, E. C., 1974. "On the unstable behaviour of stock exchanges," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-49, March.
- Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998.
"Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
- Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Duncan Ford).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.