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The Impact of Technical Analysis on Asset Price Dynamics

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  • J.-H. Steffi Yang
  • Satchell, S.E.
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    Abstract

    We study the impact of technical analysis in a context of heterogeneous, utility-maximising agents. A framework is provided to capture observed diversity in forecast estimates as a result of interaction between prior beliefs and asymmetric information. Using investment decisions of fundamentalists as a benchmark, agents’ optimal demand difference, which reflects expectation heterogeneity and the use of technical analysis, offers insights into the endogenous uncertainly in asset pricing behaviour. Technical analysis results in price feedback. We define a new family of feedback rules over cumulative distribution functions. Using bifurcation analysis, we show how prices asymptotically approach equilibrium and how significant feedback effects drive them off the equilibrium path. Both trend chasing strategy and contrarian strategy among technical trades are described in the model: the latter leads prices to overshoot the fundamental value with a high frequency; whereas in the former case, prices exhibit prolonged cyclic behaviour.

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    File URL: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research/repec/cam/pdf/wp0219.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 0219.

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    Length: 38
    Date of creation: Jul 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0219

    Note: EM (updated August 2003)
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    Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm

    Related research

    Keywords: price dynamics; heterogeneity; bifurcation; feedback trading;

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    References

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    1. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    2. Xue-Zhong (Tony) He & Carl Chiarella, 2001. "Asset Price and Wealth Dynamics under Heterogeneous Expectations," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 5A.2, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    3. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann,, . "The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _123, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
    4. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August.
    5. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Sanford J Grossman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 1997. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1908, David K. Levine.
    7. repec:att:wimass:9621 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. J. Doyne Farmer, 1998. "Market Force, Ecology, and Evolution," Research in Economics 98-12-117e, Santa Fe Institute.
    9. repec:att:wimass:9625 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Farmer, J. Doyne & Joshi, Shareen, 2002. "The price dynamics of common trading strategies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 149-171, October.
    11. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2002. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 95-132, February.
    12. W. Brian Arthur & John H. Holland & Blake LeBaron & Richard Palmer & Paul Taylor, 1996. "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectation in an Artificial Stock Market," Working Papers 96-12-093, Santa Fe Institute.
    13. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    14. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:
    1. Yang, J-H.S. & Satchell, S.E., 2003. "Endogenous Correlation," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0321, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. J-H Steffi Yang, 2004. "The Markovian Dynamics of "Smart Money"," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 797, Econometric Society.

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