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Asset Price Dynamics in a Financial Market with Heterogeneous Trading Strategies and Time Delays

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Author Info

  • Alessandro Sansone

    (Department of Economic Sciences; University of Rome “La Sapienza” & School of Finance & Economics; University of Technology, Sydney)

  • Giuseppe Garofalo

    (Department of Managerial, Technological & Quantitative Studies; University of Viterbo “Tuscia” & Department of Public Economics; University of Rome “La Sapienza”)

Abstract

In this paper we present a continuous time dynamical model of heterogeneous agents interacting in a financial market where transactions are cleared by a market maker. The market is composed of fundamentalist, trend following and contrarian agents who process information from the market with different time delays. Each class of investors is characterized by path dependent risk aversion. We also allow for the possibility of evolutionary switching between trend following and contrarian strategies. We find that the system shows periodic, quasi-periodic and chaotic dynamics as well as synchronization between technical traders. Furthermore, the model is able to generate time series of returns that exhibit statistical properties similar to those of the S&P500 index, which is characterized by excess kurtosis, volatility clustering and long memory.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/fin/papers/0510/0510026.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0510026.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 24 Oct 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0510026

Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 23
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: Dynamic asset pricing; Heterogeneous agents; Complex dynamics; Strange attractors; Chaos; Intermittency; Stock market dynamics; Synchronization;

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References

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  1. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Laura Gardini, 2005. "The Dynamic Interaction of Speculation and Diversification," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 17-52.
  2. Day, R. & Huang, W., 1988. "Bulls, Bears And Market Sheep," Papers m8822, Southern California - Department of Economics.
  3. Laurent Calvet & Adlai Fisher & Benoit Mandelbrot, 1999. "A Multifractal Model of Assets Returns," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-072, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  4. Frank Westerhoff, 2004. "Market depth and price dynamics: A note," Papers cond-mat/0403723, arXiv.org.
  5. Chiarella, Carl & Dieci, Roberto & Gardini, Laura, 2002. "Speculative behaviour and complex asset price dynamics: a global analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 173-197, October.
  6. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  7. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 1999. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risks and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Research Paper Series 18, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  8. Franke, Reiner & Sethi, Rajiv, 1998. "Cautious trend-seeking and complex asset price dynamics," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 61-79, March.
  9. repec:att:wimass:9606 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  11. C. Chiarella & X-Z. He, 2001. "Asset price and wealth dynamics under heterogeneous expectations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(5), pages 509-526.
  12. Gaunersdorfer, Andrea, 2000. "Endogenous fluctuations in a simple asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 799-831, June.
  13. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  14. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2000. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model with a Market Maker," Research Paper Series 35, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  15. Brock,W.A. & Hommes,C.H., 2002. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to complex dynamics in asset pricing models with price contingent contracts," Working papers 3, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  16. Gaunersdorfer, A. & Hommes, C.H., 2000. "A Nonlinear Structural Model for Volatility Clustering," CeNDEF Working Papers 00-02, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  17. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2002. "Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-10, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  18. Sethi, Rajiv, 1996. "Endogenous regime switching in speculative markets," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 99-118, March.
  19. Beja, Avraham & Goldman, M Barry, 1980. " On the Dynamic Behavior of Prices in Disequilibrium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 235-48, May.
  20. Xue-Zhong He, 2003. "Asset Pricing, Volatility and Market Behaviour: A Market Fraction Approach," Research Paper Series 95, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Wan, Jer-Yuh & Kao, Chung-Wei, 2009. "Evidence on the contrarian trading in foreign exchange markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1420-1431, November.
  2. Tokár, T. & Horváth, D., 2012. "Market inefficiency identified by both single and multiple currency trends," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(22), pages 5620-5627.
  3. Jiri Kukacka & Jozef Barunik, 2012. "Behavioural breaks in the heterogeneous agent model: the impact of herding, overconfidence, and market sentiment," Papers 1205.3763, arXiv.org, revised May 2013.
  4. Ho, Kin-Yip & Zheng, Lin & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2012. "Volume, volatility and information linkages in the stock and option markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 168-174.

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