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Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership

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Author Info
Robert J. Shiller () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)
Abstract

This paper looks at a broad array of evidence concerning the recent boom in home prices, and considers what this means for future home prices and the economy. It does not appear possible to explain the boom in terms of fundamentals such as rents or construction costs. A psychological theory, that represents the boom as taking place because of a feedback mechanism or social epidemic that encourages a view of housing as an important investment opportunity, fits the evidence better. Three case studies of past booms are considered for comparison: the US housing boom of 1950, the US farmland boom of the 1970s, and the temporary interruption 2004-5 of the UK housing boom. The paper concludes that while it is possible that prices will continue to go up as is commonly expected, there is a high probability of steady and substantial real home price declines extending over years to come.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d16a/d1630.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1630.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: pages
Date of creation: Sep 2007
Date of revision: Oct 2007
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1630

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Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Phone: (203) 432-3702
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA

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Related research
Keywords: Home prices; Residential investment; Mortgage; Subprime crisis; Business cycle; Recession; Boom; Bubble; Monetary policy;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
R21 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2002. "The Impact of Zoning on Housing Affordability," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1948, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 8143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Davis, Morris & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2005. "The Price and Quantity of Residential Land in the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 5333, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 83-104, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Joseph Gyourko & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2006. "Superstar Cities," NBER Working Papers 12355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2008. "Permanent and Transitory Dynamics in House Prices and Consumption: Cross-Country Evidence," Working Papers 2, University of Torino, Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato". [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2008. "International shocks and national house prices," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 14-2008, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Taylor D. Nadauld & Shane M. Sherlund, 2009. "The role of the securitization process in the expansion of subprime credit," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  4. Elias Oikarinen, 2008. "Interaction between housing prices and household borrowing - the Finnish case," Discussion Papers 29, Aboa Centre for Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Christopher W. Crowe, 2009. "Irrational Exuberance in the U.S. Housing Market: Were Evangelicals Left Behind?," IMF Working Papers 09/57, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Elias Oikarinen, 2008. "Interaction between Housing Prices and Household Borrowing in Finland," Discussion Papers 1145, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  7. Hott, Christian, 2009. "Explaining House Price Fluctuations," Working Papers 2009-5, Swiss National Bank. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-12.

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