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Expectations, Efficiency, and Euphoria in the Housing Market

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Author Info
Dennis R. Capozza
Paul J. Seguin

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Abstract

This paper studies expectations of capital appreciation in the housing market. We show that expectations impounded in the rent/price ratio at the beginning of the decade successfully predict appreciation rates, but only if we first control for cross-sectional differences in the quality of rental versus owner-occupied housing. We also demonstrate that observed rent/price ratios contain a disequilibrium component that also has power to forecast subsequent appreciation rates. Finally, we provide evidence consistent with euphoria: participants in housing markets appear to overreact to income growth.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5179.

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Date of creation: Jul 1995
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5179

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
R21 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Rose, Louis A., 1989. "Topographical constraints and urban land supply indexes," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 335-347, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-86. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Ozanne, Larry & Thibodeau, Thomas, 1983. "Explaining metropolitan housing price differences," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 51-66, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Wheaton, William C, 1990. "Vacancy, Search, and Prices in a Housing Market Matching Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(6), pages 1270-92, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Dennis R. Capozza & Gregory M. Schwann, 1989. "The Asset Approach to Pricing Urban Land: Empirical Evidence," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 161-174. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Meese Richard & Wallace Nancy, 1994. "Testing the Present Value Relation for Housing Prices: Should I Leave My House in San Francisco?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 245-266, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron, 1974. "The effects of dividend yield and dividend policy on common stock prices and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-22, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Karl E. Case, 1989. "The Asset Approach to Pricing Urban Land: Empirical Evidence," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 175-176. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Goetzmann, William Nelson & Jorion, Philippe, 1993. " Testing the Predictive Power of Dividend Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 663-79, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Hamilton, Bruce W. & Schwab, Robert M., 1985. "Expected appreciation in urban housing markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 103-118, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Merton H. Miller & Franco Modigliani, 1961. "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 411. [Downloadable!]
  13. Capozza Dennis R. & Sick Gordon A., 1994. "The Risk Structure of Land Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 297-319, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Robert J. Shiller & Karl E. Case, 1988. "The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 890, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1990. "The stochastic city," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 187-203, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Capozza, Dennis R & Schwann, Gregory M, 1990. "The Value of Risk in Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 117-40, June.
  19. Miller, Merton H & Scholes, Myron S, 1982. "Dividends and Taxes: Some Empirical Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1118-41, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Schwert, G William & Seguin, Paul J, 1990. " Heteroskedasticity in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1129-55, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. Murphy, Kevin M & Topel, Robert H, 1985. "Estimation and Inference in Two-Step Econometric Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(4), pages 370-79, October.
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken, 2007. "House Prices and Rents: Socio-Economic Impacts and Prospects," Working Papers 07_01, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jim Clayton, 1998. "Further Evidence on Real Estate Market Efficiency," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 15(1), pages 41-58. [Downloadable!]
  3. Arthur Grimes & Suzi Kerr & Andrew Aitken, 2004. "Bi-Directions Impacts of Economic, Social and Environmental Changes and the New Zealand Housing Market," Working Papers 04_09, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Suzi Kerr & Andrew Aitken & Arthur Grimes, 2004. "Land Taxes and Revenue Needs as Communities Grow and Decline: Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers 04_02, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Patric H. Hendershott, . "Uses of Equilibrium Models in Real Estate Research," Research in Financial Economics 9612, Ohio State University. [Downloadable!]
  6. Min Hwang & John Quigley & Jae Son, 2006. "The Dividend Pricing Model: New Evidence from the Korean Housing Market," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series 1067, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Arthur Grimes & Andrew Aitken & Suzi Kerr, 2004. "House Price Efficiency: Expectations, Sales, Symmetry," Urban/Regional 0408001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. W. Erwin Diewert & Alice O. Nakamura, 2009. "Accounting for housing in a CPI," Working Papers 09-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Arthur Grimes & Robert Sourell & Andrew Aitken, 2005. "Regional Variation in Rental Costs for Larger Households," Working Papers 05_02, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Joshua Gallin, 2004. "The long-run relationship between house prices and rents," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  11. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack & Christopher J. Mayer, 2002. "Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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