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Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership

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Robert J. Shiller

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Abstract

This paper looks at a broad array of evidence concerning the recent boom in home prices, and considers what this means for future home prices and the economy. It does not appear possible to explain the boom in terms of fundamentals such as rents or construction costs. A psychological theory, that represents the boom as taking place because of a feedback mechanism or social epidemic that encourages a view of housing as an important investment opportunity, fits the evidence better.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13553.

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Date of creation: Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13553

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R0 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 8143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 83-104, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2002. "The Impact of Zoning on Housing Affordability," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1948, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Davis, Morris & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2005. "The Price and Quantity of Residential Land in the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 5333, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Joseph Gyourko & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2006. "Superstar Cities," NBER Working Papers 12355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Elias Oikarinen, 2008. "Interaction between housing prices and household borrowing - the Finnish case," Discussion Papers 29, Aboa Centre for Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Elias Oikarinen, 2008. "Interaction between Housing Prices and Household Borrowing in Finland," Discussion Papers 1145, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  3. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2008. "Permanent and Transitory Dynamics in House Prices and Consumption: Cross-Country Evidence," Working Papers 2, University of Torino, Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato". [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2008. "International shocks and national house prices," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 14-2008, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  5. Christopher W. Crowe, 2009. "Irrational Exuberance in the U.S. Housing Market: Were Evangelicals Left Behind?," IMF Working Papers 09/57, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hott, Christian, 2009. "Explaining House Price Fluctuations," Working Papers 2009-5, Swiss National Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Taylor D. Nadauld & Shane M. Sherlund, 2009. "The role of the securitization process in the expansion of subprime credit," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-25.


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