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The Price and Quantity of Residential Land in the United States

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Author Info
Jonathan Heathcote
Morris Davis

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Abstract

In this paper, we construct the first constant-quality aggregate price index for the stock of residential land in the United States. In the process, we uncover four main results: (a) since 1970, residential land prices have risen nearly twice as fast, but also have been twice as volatile as existing home prices; (b) the nominal stock of residential land accounts for approximately thirty percent of the market value of the housing stock and is approximately equal to forty percent of nominal GDP; (c) the real quality-adjusted stock of residential land has increased an average of one-half percent per year since 1970; and, (d) residential investment leads the price of residential land by about two quarters. This last result may be inconsistent with some popular models of residential investment that rely on demand shocks to spur changes in investment. We also show that the logarithms of the nominal constant-quality price index for land, disposable income, and interest rates are cointegrated, although the simple statistical models we estimate do not fully explain the magnitude of historical booms and busts in residential land prices.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2004 Meeting Papers with number 32.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed004:32

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Related research
Keywords: Land; Housing; Macroeconomics;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
R1 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General Regional Economics
R21 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
R - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
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  19. Thorsnes, Paul, 1997. "Consistent Estimates of the Elasticity of Substitution between Land and Non-Land Inputs in the Production of Housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 98-108, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Hanno Lustig, 2004. "Housing Collateral and Consumption Insurance Across US Regions," 2004 Meeting Papers 548, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Saku Aura & Thomas Davidoff, 2005. "Optimal Commodity Taxation When Land and Structures Must Be Taxed at the Same Rate," Working Papers 0505, Department of Economics, University of Missouri. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Robert F. Martin Joseph W. Gruber, 2004. "Does Housing Wealth Make Us Less Equal? The Role of Durable Goods in the Distribution of Wealth," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 15, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  3. Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2005. "Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Working Paper 2005-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  4. Klaus Desmet & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2009. "Spatial Development," NBER Working Papers 15349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding recent trends in house prices and homeownership," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-123. [Downloadable!]
  6. Morris A. Davis & Robert F. Martin, 2005. "Housing, house prices, and the equity premium puzzle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. James A. Kahn, 2008. "What drives housing prices?," Staff Reports 345, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  8. Akos Valentinyi & Berthold Herrendorf, 2008. "Measuring Factor Income Shares at the Sector Level," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 820-835, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Elias Oikarinen, 2009. "Dynamic linkages between housing and lot prices: Empirical evidence from Helsinki," Discussion Papers 53, Aboa Centre for Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Elias Oikarinen, 2008. "Empirical application of the housing-market no-arbitrage condition: problems, solutions and a Finnish case study," Discussion Papers 39, Aboa Centre for Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership," NBER Working Papers 13553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. David Y. Albouy, 2008. "The Unequal Geographic Burden of Federal Taxation," NBER Working Papers 13995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Thesia I. Garner & Randal Verbrugge, 2007. "Puzzling Divergence of U.S. Rents and User Costs, 1980-2004: Summary and Extensions," Working Papers 409, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  18. Jordan Rappaport, 2006. "Consumption amenities and city crowdedness," Research Working Paper RWP 06-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  19. Calvin Schnure, 2005. "Boom-Bust Cycles in Housing: The Changing Role of Financial Structure," IMF Working Papers 05/200, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  20. Joshua Gallin, 2004. "The long-run relationship between house prices and rents," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  21. Morris A. Davis & Robert F. Martin, 2008. "Housing, home production, and the equity and value premium puzzles," International Finance Discussion Papers 931, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  22. Davis, Morris A. / Ortalo-Magné, François, 2007. "Household Expenditures, Wages, Rents," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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