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The price and quantity of residential land in the United States

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Author Info
Morris A. Davis
Jonathan Heathcote

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Abstract

We combine publicly available data from Freddie Mac, the Decennial Census of Housing, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis to construct the first constant-quality aggregate price index for the stock of residential land in the United States. We uncover five main results: (a) since 1970, residential land prices have grown faster but (b) have also been twice as volatile as existing home prices; (c) averaged from 1970 to 2003, the nominal stock of residential land under 1-4 unit structures accounts for 38% of the market value of the housing stock and is equal to 50% of nominal annual GDP; (d) the real stock of residential land under 1-4 unit structures has increased an average of 0.6% per year since 1970; and (e) residential investment leads the price of residential land by three quarters. We also estimate that in 2003:Q3 the nominal value of the entire stock of residential land is the same as annual GDP. Finally, we show for the US data that the logarithms of the nominal price index for residential land, disposable income, and interest rates are cointegrated.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2004-37.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2004-37

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Related research
Keywords: Housing - Prices ; Real property;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bajari, Patrick & Benkard, C. Lanier & Krainer, John, 2005. "House prices and consumer welfare," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 474-487, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. John M. Quigley & Steven Raphael, 2005. "Regulation and the High Cost of Housing in California," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 323-328, May. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2005. "Taxes, regulations, and the value of U.S. and U.K. corporations," Staff Report 309, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Robert E. Hall, 2001. "The Stock Market and Capital Accumulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1185-1202, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Jeremy C. Stein, 2005. "The Only Game in Town: Stock-Price Consequences of Local Bias," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2077, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2003. "The impact of building restrictions on housing affordability," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun, pages 21-39. [Downloadable!]
  9. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Jeremy C. Stein, 2005. "The Only Game in Town: Stock-Price Consequences of Local Bias," NBER Working Papers 11488, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2003-2), pages 299-362. [Downloadable!]
  12. Morris A. Davis & Jonathan Heathcote, 2005. "Housing And The Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(3), pages 751-784, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2004. "How Much Does Household Collateral Constrain Regional Risk Sharing?," NBER Working Papers 10505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider & Selale Tuzel, 2004. "Housing, Consumption and Asset Pricing," 2004 Meeting Papers 357c, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  15. Thorsnes, Paul, 1997. "Consistent Estimates of the Elasticity of Substitution between Land and Non-Land Inputs in the Production of Housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 98-108, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Mark L.J. Wright, 2005. "Urban Structure and Growth," NBER Working Papers 11262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Hanno Lustig, 2004. "Housing Collateral and Consumption Insurance Across US Regions," 2004 Meeting Papers 548, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  21. John M. Quigley & Steven Raphael, 2004. "Is Housing Unaffordable? Why Isn't It More Affordable?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 191-214, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. McDonald, John F., 1981. "Capital-land substitution in urban housing: A survey of empirical estimates," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 190-211, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Joshua Gallin, 2003. "The long-run relationship between house prices and income: evidence from local housing markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  24. repec:bep:macadv:v:5:y:2005:i:1:p:1235-1235 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Marjorie Flavin & Takashi Yamashita, 2002. "Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 345-362, March. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dong Fu, 2007. "National, regional and metro-specific factors of the U.S. housing market," Working Papers 0707, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  2. Robert F. Martin, 2005. "The baby boom: predictability in house prices and interest rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 847, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Elias Oikarinen, 2009. "Dynamic linkages between housing and lot prices: Empirical evidence from Helsinki," Discussion Papers 53, Aboa Centre for Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Elias Oikarinen, 2008. "Empirical application of the housing-market no-arbitrage condition: problems, solutions and a Finnish case study," Discussion Papers 39, Aboa Centre for Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jordan Rappaport, 2006. "Consumption amenities and city crowdedness," Research Working Paper RWP 06-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  6. Calvin Schnure, 2005. "Boom-Bust Cycles in Housing: The Changing Role of Financial Structure," IMF Working Papers 05/200, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Saku Aura & Thomas Davidoff, 2005. "Optimal Commodity Taxation When Land and Structures Must Be Taxed at the Same Rate," Working Papers 0505, Department of Economics, University of Missouri. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding recent trends in house prices and homeownership," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-123. [Downloadable!]
  9. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership," NBER Working Papers 13553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Joshua Gallin, 2004. "The long-run relationship between house prices and rents," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  11. Morris A. Davis & Robert F. Martin, 2008. "Housing, home production, and the equity and value premium puzzles," International Finance Discussion Papers 931, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  12. David Y. Albouy, 2008. "The Unequal Geographic Burden of Federal Taxation," NBER Working Papers 13995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Davis, Morris A. / Ortalo-Magné, François, 2007. "Household Expenditures, Wages, Rents," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  14. Morris A. Davis & Robert F. Martin, 2005. "Housing, house prices, and the equity premium puzzle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  15. Robert F. Martin Joseph W. Gruber, 2004. "Does Housing Wealth Make Us Less Equal? The Role of Durable Goods in the Distribution of Wealth," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 15, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  16. James A. Kahn, 2008. "What drives housing prices?," Staff Reports 345, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  17. Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2005. "Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Working Paper 2005-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  18. Akos Valentinyi & Berthold Herrendorf, 2008. "Measuring Factor Income Shares at the Sector Level," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 820-835, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Klaus Desmet & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2009. "Spatial Development," NBER Working Papers 15349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Thesia I. Garner & Randal Verbrugge, 2007. "Puzzling Divergence of U.S. Rents and User Costs, 1980-2004: Summary and Extensions," Working Papers 409, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  21. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding Recent Trends in House Prices and Home Ownership," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1630, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Oct 2007. [Downloadable!]
  22. Akos Valentinyi & Berthold Herrendorf, 2008. "Measuring Factor Income Shares at the Sectoral Level," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0803, Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences. [Downloadable!]
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