Most economic activity occurs in cities. This creates a tension between local increasing returns, implied by the existence of cities, and aggregate constant returns, implied by balanced growth. To address this tension, we develop a theory of economic growth in an urban environment. We show that the urban structure is the margin that eliminates local increasing returns to yield constant returns to scale in the aggregate, which is sufficient to deliver balanced growth. In a multi-sector economy with specific factors and productivity shocks, the same mechanism leads to a city size distribution that is well described by a power distribution with coefficient one: Zipf's Law. Under certain assumptions our theory produces Zipf's Law exactly. More generally, it produces the systematic deviations from Zipf's Law observed in the data, including the under-representation of small cities and the absence of very large ones. In general, the model identifies the standard deviation of industry productivity shocks as the key parameter determining dispersion in the city size distribution. We present evidence that the relationship between the dispersion of city sizes and the variance of productivity shocks is consistent with the data.
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number
11262.
Length: Date of creation: Apr 2005 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11262
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Find related papers by JEL classification: E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity R0 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971.
"Investment Under Uncertainty,"
Econometrica,
Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-81, September.
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