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Housing and the business cycle

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Author Info
Morris Davis
Jonathan Heathcote

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Abstract

In the United States, the percentage standard deviation of residential investment is more than twice that of non-residential investment. In addition, GDP, consumption, and both types of investment co-move positively. We reproduce these facts in a calibrated multi-sector growth model where construction, manufacturing and services are combined, in different proportions, to produce consumption, business investment and residential structures. New housing requires land in addition to new structures. The model can also account for important features of industry-level data. In particular, hours and output in all industries are positively correlated, and are most volatile in construction.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2004-11.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2004-11

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Keywords: Housing - Finance Investments Business cycles

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
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  4. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Hornstein, Andreas & Praschnik, Jack, 1997. "Intermediate inputs and sectoral comovement in the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 573-595, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Diaz-Gimenez, Javier & Prescott, Edward C. & Fitzgerald, Terry & Alvarez, Fernando, 1992. "Banking in computable general equilibrium economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 533-559. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Chang, Yongsung, 2000. "Comovement, excess volatility, and home production," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 385-396, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Baxter, Marianne, 1996. "Are Consumer Durables Important for Business Cycles?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 147-55, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Rochelle M. Edge, 2000. "The effect of monetary policy on residential and structures investment under differential project planning and completion times," International Finance Discussion Papers 671, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  17. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Dirk Krueger, 2004. "Consumption and Saving over the Life Cycle: How Important are Consumer Durables?," 2004 Meeting Papers 357b, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  21. David Domeij & Jonathan Heathcote, 2004. "On The Distributional Effects Of Reducing Capital Taxes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 523-554, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Thomas Lindh & Bo Malmberg, 2008. "Demography and housing demand—what can we learn from residential construction data?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 521-539, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Calza, Alessandro & Monacelli, Tommaso & Stracca, Livio, 2007. "Mortgage Markets, Collateral Constraints, and Monetary Policy: Do Institutional Factors Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing IS the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 13428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider & Selale Tuzel, 2006. "Housing, Consumption, and Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 12036, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don Schlagenhauf, 2007. "Equilibrium mortgage choice and housing tenure decisions with refinancing," Working Papers 2007-049, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don E. Schlagenhauf, 2007. "Accounting for changes in the homeownership rate," Working Paper 2007-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Morris A. Davis & Michael G. Palumbo, 2006. "The price of residential land in large U.S. cities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  8. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2007. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 659, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 22 Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
  9. Davis, Morris & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2005. "The Price and Quantity of Residential Land in the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 5333, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Matteo Iacoviello, 2004. "Consumption, House Prices and Collateral Constraints: a Structural Econometric Analysis," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 589, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 13 Sep 2004. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Dong Fu, 2007. "National, regional and metro-specific factors of the U.S. housing market," Working Papers 0707, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  12. Robert F. Martin, 2005. "The baby boom: predictability in house prices and interest rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 847, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  13. Essi Eerola & Niku Määttänen, 2006. "On the Political Economy of Housing's Tax Status," Topics in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 6(2), pages 1393-1393. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. John Krainer & Milton H. Marquis, 2003. "Mortgages as recursive contracts," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2003-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2007. " Winners and Losers in Housing Markets," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0705, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  16. Morris A. Davis & Robert F. Martin, 2008. "Housing, home production, and the equity and value premium puzzles," International Finance Discussion Papers 931, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  17. Wenli Li & Rui Yao, 2005. "The life-cycle effects of house price changes," Working Papers 05-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  18. Arce, Oscar & López-Salido, J David, 2006. "House Prices, Rents and Interest Rates Under Collateral Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 5689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Eerola, Essi & Määttänen, Niku, 2008. "On the importance of borrowing constraints for house price dynamics," Research Discussion Papers 8/2008, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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