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The business cycle and the life cycle

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Author Info
Paul Gomme
Richard Rogerson
Peter Rupert
Randall Wright

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Abstract

The paper documents how cyclical fluctuations in market work vary over the life cycle and then assesses the predictions of a life-cycle version of the growth model for those observations. The analysis yields a simple but striking finding. The main discrepancy between the model and that data lies in the inability of the model to account for fluctuations in hours for individuals in the first half of their life cycle. The predictions for those in the latter half of the life cycle are quite close to the data.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its series Working Paper with number 0404.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0404

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Keywords: Business cycles ; Hours of labor;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Greenwood, J. & Hercowitz, Z., 1991. "The Allocation of Capital and Time Over the Business Cycle," RCER Working Papers 268, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    Other versions:
  2. Benhabib, Jess & Rogerson, Richard & Wright, Randall, 1991. "Homework in Macroeconomics: Household Production and Aggregate Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1166-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Altonji, Joseph G, 1986. "Intertemporal Substitution in Labor Supply: Evidence from Micro Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages S176-S215, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Mark Aguiar & Erik Hurst, 2004. "Consumption vs. Expenditure," NBER Working Papers 10307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Plosser, Charles I, 1989. "Understanding Real Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 51-77, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Yongsung Chang & Joao Gomes & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Learning by Doing as a Propagation Mechanism," Macroeconomics 0204002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Felix Kubler & Herakles Polemarchakis, 2004. "Stationary Markov equilibria for overlapping generations," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 623-643, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Gomme, Paul, 1999. "Shirking, Unemployment and Aggregate Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(1), pages 3-21, February.
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  11. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Kydland, Finn E., 1984. "Labor-force heterogeneity and the business cycle," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 173-208, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Paul Gomme & Finn E. Kydland & Peter Rupert, 2001. "Home Production Meets Time to Build," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(5), pages 1115-1131, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Peter Rupert & Richard Rogerson & Randall Wright, 1994. "Estimating substitution elasticities in household production models," Staff Report 186, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Danthine, J.P. & Donaldson, J.B., 1993. "Non-Walrassian Economies," Papers 93-02, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
  17. Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 309-40, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Marianne Baxter & Urban J. Jermann, 1999. "Household Production and the Excess Sensitivity of Consumption to Current Income," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 902-920, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Hall, Robert E, 1997. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and the Allocation of Time," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(1), pages S223-50, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Oliver Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1990. "The Cyclical Behovior of the Gross Flows of U.S. Workers," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1990-2), pages 85-156. [Downloadable!]
  22. Greenwood, J. & Rogerson, R. & Wright, R., 1993. "Household Production in Real Business Cycle Thoery," RCER Working Papers 347, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  23. Shaw, Kathryn L, 1989. "Life-Cycle Labor Supply with Human Capital Accumulation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(2), pages 431-56, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Demographic Differences in Cyclical Employment Variation," NBER Working Papers 0514, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Gary D. Hansen & Randall Wright, 1992. "The labor market in real business cycle theory," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 2-12. [Downloadable!]
  26. Susumu Imai & Michael P. Keane, 2004. "Intertemporal Labor Supply and Human Capital Accumulation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 601-641, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Merz, Monika, 1995. "Search in the labor market and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 269-300, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Michael P. Keane & Eswar S. Prasad, 1991. "The employment and wage effects of oil price shocks: a sectoral analysis," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 51, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  29. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 24, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  30. Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor, 1996. "Life-Cycle Economies and Aggregate Fluctuations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 63(3), pages 465-89, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. McGrattan, Ellen R & Rogerson, Richard & Wright, Randall, 1997. "An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle with Household Production and Fiscal Policy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 267-90, May.
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  32. Cho, Jang-Ok & Rogerson, Richard, 1988. "Family labor supply and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 233-245. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Andolfatto, David, 1996. "Business Cycles and Labor-Market Search," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 112-32, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Alexopoulos, Michelle, 2004. "Unemployment and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 277-298, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gary D. Hansen, . "Business Cycle Fluctuations and the Life Cycle: How Important is Learning by Doing? (with Selo Imrohoroglu)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 421, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Santos Monteiro, Paulo, 2005. "Family labor supply, precautionary behavior, aggregate saving and employment," MPRA Paper 2113, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2007. [Downloadable!]
  3. Alison Booth & Melvyn Coles, 2007. "The Impact Of Fiscal Policy On Labor Supply And Education In An Economy With Household And Market Production," CAMA Working Papers 2007-08, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Richard Rogerson & Lodewijk P. Visschers & Randall Wright, 2008. "Labor Market Fluctuations in the Small and in the Large," NBER Working Papers 13872, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Dominik Grafenhofer & Christian Jaag & Christian Keuschnigg & Mirela Keuschnigg, 2006. "Probabilistic Aging," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Stuart J. Fowler & Eric R. Young, 2004. "The Acquisition of Skills over the Life-Cycle," Working Papers 200402, Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  7. Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2007. "The young, the old, and the restless: demographics and business cycle volatility," Staff Report 387, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Nir Jaimovich & Seth Pruitt & Henry E. Siu, 2009. "The Demand for Youth: Implications for the Hours Volatility Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 14697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Santos Monteiro, Paulo, 2008. "Family Labor Supply and Aggregate Saving," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 875, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ben J. Heijdra & Jenny Ligthart, 2006. "The Transitional Dynamics of Fiscal Policy in Small Open Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  11. Alison Booth & Melvyn Coles & Xiaodong Gong, 2006. "Increasing Returns to Education: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 522, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Gary D. Hansen & Selo Imrohoroglu, 2007. "Business Cycle Fluctuations and the Life Cycle: How Important is On-The-Job Skill Accumulation?," NBER Working Papers 13603, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Ljungqvist, Lars & Sargent, Thomas J, 2007. "Do Taxes Explain European Employment? Indivisible Labour, Human Capital, Lotteries and Savings," CEPR Discussion Papers 6196, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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