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Tracking Owners’ Sentiments: Subjective Home Values, Expectations and House Price Dynamics

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  • Anthony Lepinteur
  • Sofie R. Waltl

Abstract

Economic theory predicts that expectations on future house price growth are related to the current price of a house. We test this relationship for the supply side of the secondary housing market using micro data that links individual expectations to a subjective owner estimated value (OEV). We find a strong relationship suggesting that optimistic expectations indeed imply higher OEVs as compared to neutral or pessimistic expectations. We find qualitatively and quantitatively consistent results for Italy and the US as well as for booming and gloomy years. Our results survive ample robustness checks. Since we use subjective data on house prices, we first show that OEVs are indeed a valid source to study house price dynamics by performing three types of convergent validity tests. We find that price dynamics derived by either combining OEVs and dwelling characteristics, or making use of repeatedly provided OEVs by the same owner over time reproduce objectively measured market trends strikingly well – even over decades. In contrast, OEVs and objective data tend to differ in levels – potentially due to psychological bias. These results hold for a large set of countries. We hence conclude that the “wisdom of the home-owner crowd” is sufficient to study house price dynamics but OEVs are less suited for measuring the level of market prices.

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  • Anthony Lepinteur & Sofie R. Waltl, 2021. "Tracking Owners’ Sentiments: Subjective Home Values, Expectations and House Price Dynamics," LISER Working Paper Series 2021-02, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    • Handle: RePEc:irs:cepswp:2021-02
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    Cited by:

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    2. Emanuel List, 2023. "Housing and Income Inequality in Europe: Distributional Effects of Non‐Cash Income From Imputed Rents," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(2), pages 504-532, June.
    3. Oh, Sebeom & Ku, Hyejin & Jun, Doobae, 2022. "A comparative analysis of housing prices in different cities using the Black–Scholes and Jump Diffusion models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    4. Denisa Naidin & Sofie R. Waltl & Michael Ziegelmeyer, 2022. "Objectified Housing Sales and Rent Prices in Representative Household Surveys: the Impact on Macroeconomic Statistics," LISER Working Paper Series 2022-03, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    5. Sofie R. Waltl, 2022. "Wealth Inequality: A Hybrid Approach Toward Multidimensional Distributional National Accounts In Europe," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(1), pages 74-108, March.

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    Keywords

    Housing Markets; Expectations; Heterogenous Beliefs; Subjective Data; Convergent Validity;
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    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation

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