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What Explains U.S. House Prices? Regional Income Divergence

Author

Listed:
  • Greg Howard

    (University of Illinois)

  • Carl Liebersohn

    (Ohio State University)

Abstract

A simple measure of regional income divergence explains much of the variation in U.S. house prices since 1939. We develop an asset-pricing theory to explain why. House prices reflect the discounted value of expected rents, which reflect expected incomes. Higher expected regional income divergence increases the house price premium in rich areas. This raises average prices because house prices in poor areas are largely determined by construction costs. In addition to explaining average prices, our model explains several facts about the housing market, including regional variation in prices, the relationship between rents and prices, and patterns of net inter-state migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Greg Howard & Carl Liebersohn, 2019. "What Explains U.S. House Prices? Regional Income Divergence," 2019 Meeting Papers 1054, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed019:1054
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Brian Micallef & Nathaniel Debono, 2020. "The rental sector and the housing block in STREAM," CBM Working Papers WP/03/2020, Central Bank of Malta.
    2. Isil Erol & Umut Unal, 2021. "Local House Price Effects of Internal Migration in Queensland: Australia’s New Interstate Migration Capital," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202124, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    3. Stefano Colonnello & Roberto Marfè & Qizhou Xiong, 2021. "Housing Yields," Working Papers 2021:21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", revised 2021.
    4. Xiaoping Zhou & Zhenyang Qin & Yingjie Zhang & Linyi Zhao & Yan Song, 2019. "Quantitative Estimation and Spatiotemporal Characteristic Analysis of Price Deviation in China's Housing Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-28, December.
    5. Dooruj Rambaccussing, 2021. "The price–rent ratio inequality in Scottish Cities: fluctuations in discount rates and expected rent growth," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(9), pages 1-15, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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