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The Geography Channel of House Price Appreciation

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  • Howard, Greg

    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

  • Liebersohn, Jack

    (Ohio State University (OSU) - Fisher College of Business)

Abstract

We develop a theory whereby increased demand for living in housing-supply-inelastic regions raises aggregate house prices, and we show that this channel contributed significantly to the U.S. house price boom from 2000 to 2006. As an example of our framework, we show that a decline in manufacturing, an industry concentrated in elastic areas, raises national house prices. Our framework also predicts that changes in the price-rent ratio, from interest rates or other changes in the mortgage market, increase relative locational demand for high-rent areas, which are typically inelastic. Changes in locational demand therefore fill in a missing link between changes in aggregate credit conditions and aggregate house prices. We show evidence of this in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Howard, Greg & Liebersohn, Jack, 2018. "The Geography Channel of House Price Appreciation," Working Paper Series 2018-17, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2018-17
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    2. E. V. Antonov & N. K. Kurichev & A. I. Treivish, 2022. "Shrinking Urban System of the Largest Country: Research Progress and Unsolved Issues," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 20-35, March.
    3. Greg Howard & Jack Liebersohn, 2023. "Regional Divergence and House Prices," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 312-350, July.
    4. Manfred M. Fischer & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer & Petra Staufer‐Steinnocher, 2021. "The Dynamic Impact of Monetary Policy on Regional Housing Prices in the United States," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1039-1068, December.
    5. Isaiah Hull & Conny Olovsson & Karl Walentin & Andreas Westermark, 2022. "Manufacturing Decline and House Price Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 264-281, July.
    6. Dias, Daniel A. & Duarte, João B., 2015. "Monetary Policy and Homeownership: Empirical Evidence, Theory, and Policy Implications," MPRA Paper 112252, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Mar 2021.
    7. Howard, Greg & Liebersohn, Jack & Ozimek, Adam, 2023. "The short- and long-run effects of remote work on U.S. housing markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(1), pages 166-184.
    8. Isil Erol & Umut Unal, 2023. "Local House Price Effects of Internal Migration in Queensland: Australia's Interstate Migration Capital," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(3), pages 308-327, September.
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    10. Jaimovich, Nir & Terry, Stephen & Vincent, Nicolas, 2020. "Location, Location, Location: Manufacturing and House Price Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 15409, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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