The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States
AbstractWe analyze the effect of rising Chinese import competition between 1990 and 2007 on local U.S. labor markets, exploiting cross-market variation in import exposure stemming from initial differences in industry specialization while instrumenting for imports using changes in Chinese imports by industry to other high-income countries. Rising exposure increases unemployment, lowers labor force participation, and reduces wages in local labor markets. Conservatively, it explains one-quarter of the contemporaneous aggregate decline in U.S. manufacturing employment. Transfer benefits payments for unemployment, disability, retirement, and healthcare also rise sharply in exposed labor markets.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18054.
Date of creation: May 2012
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Other versions of this item:
- David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-68, October.
- Autor, David & Dorn, David & Hanson, Gordon H., 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," IZA Discussion Papers 7150, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
- H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
- J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
- J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-05-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-CNA-2012-05-22 (China)
- NEP-LAB-2012-05-22 (Labour Economics)
- NEP-LTV-2012-05-22 (Unemployment, Inequality & Poverty)
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- Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 2009.
"New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?,"
NBER Working Papers
15628, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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