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Much Ado About Nothing: American Jobs and the Rise of Service Outsourcing to China and India

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Author Info
Runjuan Liu
Daniel Trefler

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Abstract

We examine the impact on U.S. labor markets of offshore outsourcing in services to China and India. We also consider the reverse flow or 'inshoring' which is the sale of services produced in the United States to unaffiliated buyers in China and India. Using March-to-March matched CPS data for 1996-2006 we examine the impacts on (1) occupation and industry switching, (2) weeks spent unemployed as a share of weeks in the labor force, and (3) earnings. We precisely estimate small positive effects of inshoring and smaller negative effects of offshore outsourcing. The net effect is positive. To illustrate how small the effects are, suppose that over the next nine years all of inshoring and offshore outsourcing grew at rates experienced during 1996-2005 in business, professional and technical services i.e., in segments where China and India have been particularly strong. Then workers in occupations that are exposed to inshoring and offshore outsourcing (1) would switch 4-digit occupations 2 percent less often, (2) would spend 0.1 percent less time unemployed, and (3) would earn 1.5 percent more. These are not annual changes – they are changes over nine years – and are thus best described as small positive effects.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14061.

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Date of creation: Jun 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14061

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F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Eric A. Verhoogen, 2008. "Trade, Quality Upgrading, and Wage Inequality in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(2), pages 489-530, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Bartel, Ann P & Lach, Saul & Sicherman, Nachum, 2005. "Outsourcing and Technological Change," CEPR Discussion Papers 5082, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Tom Krebs & Pravin Krishna, 2005. "Trade Policy, Income Risk and Welfare," 2005 Meeting Papers 271, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  4. Alan S. Blinder, 2005. "Fear of Offshoring," Working Papers 83, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies.. [Downloadable!]
  5. Antràs, Pol & Helpman, Elhanan, 2004. "Global Sourcing," CEPR Discussion Papers 4170, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Jagdish Bhagwati & Arvind Panagariya & T. N. Srinivasan, 2004. "The Muddles over Outsourcing," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 93-114, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 2007. "Outsourcing and Volatility," NBER Working Papers 13144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Paul A. Samuelson, 2004. "Where Ricardo and Mill Rebut and Confirm Arguments of Mainstream Economists Supporting Globalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 135-146, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Mary Amiti & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "Fear of service outsourcing: is it justified?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 20(42), pages 308-347, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. C. Alan Garner, 2004. "Offshoring in the service sector : economic impact and policy issues," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-37. [Downloadable!]
  11. David Neumark & Daiji Kawaguchi, 2001. "Attrition Bias in Economic Relationships Estimated with Matched CPS Files," NBER Working Papers 8663, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Gene M. Grossman & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2008. "Trading Tasks: A Simple Theory of Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1978-97, December. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Linda Goldberg & Joseph Tracy, 2001. "Exchange Rates and Wages," NBER Working Papers 8137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Ann E. Harrison & Margaret S. McMillan, 2006. "Outsourcing Jobs? Multinationals and US Employment," NBER Working Papers 12372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Moscarini, Giuseppe & Thomsson, Kaj, 2006. "Occupational and Job Mobility in the US," Working Papers 19, Yale University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 1996. "Globalization, Outsourcing, and Wage Inequality," NBER Working Papers 5424, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Robert Feenstra & Gordon Hanson, 2001. "Global Production Sharing and Rising Inequality: A Survey of Trade and Wages," NBER Working Papers 8372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Pol Antràs, 2003. "Firms, Contracts, And Trade Structure," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1375-1418, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Iourii Manovskii & Gueorgui Kambourov, 2004. "Occupational Specificity of Human Capital," 2004 Meeting Papers 197, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Ashok Bardhan & Cynthia Kroll, 2003. "The New Wave of Outsourcing," Fisher Center for Real Estate & Urban Economics, Research Reports 1025, Fisher Center for Real Estate & Urban Economics, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
  21. George J. Borjas & Richard B. Freeman & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "On the Labor Market Effects of Immigration and Trade," NBER Chapters, in: Immigration and the Workforce: Economic Consequences for the United States and Source Areas, pages 213-244 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Jacobson, Louis S & LaLonde, Robert J & Sullivan, Daniel G, 1993. "Earnings Losses of Displaced Workers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 685-709, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Gregory Mankiw, N. & Swagel, Phillip, 2006. "The politics and economics of offshore outsourcing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 1027-1056, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Bernard, Andrew B. & Jensen, J. Bradford & Schott, Peter K., 2006. "Survival of the best fit: Exposure to low-wage countries and the (uneven) growth of U.S. manufacturing plants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 219-237, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Mary Amiti & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "Service Offshoring, Productivity, and Employment: Evidence from the United States," IMF Working Papers 05/238, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Arjan Lejour & Peter Smith, 2008. "International Trade in Services—Editorial Introduction," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 169-180, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Daniel Baumgarten, 2009. "International Outsourcing, the Nature of Tasks, and Occupational Stability – Empirical Evidence for Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 0108, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
  3. Rosario Crinò, 2009. "Service Offshoring and White-Collar Employment," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 775.09, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Amador, João & Cabral, Sónia, 2008. "International fragmentation of production in the Portuguese economy: What do different measures tell us?," MPRA Paper 9783, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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