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Trade policy, income risk, and welfare

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Krebs, tom
Krishna, Pravin
Maloney, William

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Abstract

This paper studies empirically the relationship between trade policy and individual income risk faced by workers, and uses the estimates of this empirical analysis to evaluate the welfare effect of trade reform. The analysis proceeds in three steps. First, longitudinal data on workers are used to estimate time-varying individual income risk parameters in various manufacturing sectors. Second, the estimated income risk parameters and data on trade barriers are used to analyze the relationship between trade policy and income risk. Finally, a simple dynamic incomplete-market model is used to assess the corresponding welfare costs. In the implementation of this methodology using Mexican data, the paper finds that trade policy changes have a significant short run effect on income risk. Further, whilethe tariff level has an insignificant mean effect, it nevertheless changes the degree to which macroeconomic shocks affect income risk.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3622.

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Date of creation: 01 Jun 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3622

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Constantinides, George M & Duffie, Darrell, 1996. "Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 219-40, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Levinsohn, James, 1999. "Employment responses to international liberalization in Chile," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 321-344, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Krebs, Tom, 2004. "Testable implications of consumption-based asset pricing models with incomplete markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 191-206, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Alesina, Alberto & Rodrik, Dani, 1994. "Distributive Politics and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 465-90, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Tom Krebs, 2003. "Growth and Welfare Effects of Business Cycles in Economies with Idiosyncratic Human Capital Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 846-868, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Robert E. Lucas, 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March. [Downloadable!]
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  31. Carroll, Christopher D. & Samwick, Andrew A., 1997. "The nature of precautionary wealth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 41-71, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  32. Huggett, Mark, 1993. "The risk-free rate in heterogeneous-agent incomplete-insurance economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 953-969. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Aiyagari, S Rao, 1994. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 659-84, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  34. Currie, Janet & Harrison, Ann E, 1997. "Sharing the Costs: The Impact of Trade Reform on Capital and Labor in Morocco," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(3), pages S44-71, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Barbara Pfeffer, 2006. "Trade Policy and Risk Diversification," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeitraege 126-06, Universität Siegen, Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht. [Downloadable!]
  2. Heathcote, Jonathan & Storesletten, Kjetil & Violante, Giovanni L, 2005. "Insurance and Opportunities: The Welfare Implications of Rising Wage Dispersion," CEPR Discussion Papers 5200, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2006. "Trade Openness and Volatility," Development Working Papers 219, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2007. "Insurance and Opportunities: A Welfare Analysis of Labor Market Risk," NBER Working Papers 13673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Runjuan Liu & Daniel Trefler, 2008. "Much Ado About Nothing: American Jobs and the Rise of Service Outsourcing to China and India," NBER Working Papers 14061, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Nina Pavcnik, 2007. "Distributional Effects of Globalization in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 12885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Di Maio, Michele, 2006. "Uncertainty, trade integration and the optimal level of protection in a Ricardian model with a continuum of goods," MPRA Paper 4645, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Daehaeng Kim & Chul-In Lee, 2007. "Government Size and Intersectoral Income Fluctuation: An International Panel Analysis," IMF Working Papers 07/93, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Arias, Omar & Blom, Andreas & Bosch, Mariano & Cunningham, Wendy & Fiszbein, Ariel & Lopez Acevedo, Gladys & Maloney, William & Saavedra, Jaime & Sanchez-Paramo, Carolina & Santamaria, Mauricio & Siga, 2005. "Pending issues in protection, productivity growth, and poverty reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3799, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Giuseppe Bertola, 2007. "Finance and Welfare States in Globalising Markets," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Jeremy Lawson (ed.), The Structure and Resilience of the Financial System Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Pravin Krishna & Mine Zeynep Senses, 2009. "International Trade and Labor Income Risk in the United States," NBER Working Papers 14992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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