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Modeling Earnings Dynamics

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  • Ivan Vidangos

    ()
    (Economics Yale University)

  • Joseph G. Altonji
  • Anthony Smith

Abstract

In this paper we use indirect inference to estimate a joint model of earnings, employment, job changes, wage rates, and work hours over a career. Our model incorporates duration dependence in several variables, multiple sources of unobserved heterogeneity, job-specific error components in both wages and hours, and measurement error. We use the model to address a number of important questions in labor economics, including the source of the experience profile of wages, the response of job changes to outside wage offers, and the effects of seniority on job changes. We provide estimates of the dynamic response of wage rates, hours, and earnings to various shocks and measure the relative contributions of the shocks to the variance of earnings in a given year and over a lifetime. We find that human capital accounts for most of the growth of earnings over a career although job seniority and job mobility also play significant roles. Unemployment shocks have a large impact on earnings in the short run as well a substantial long long-term effect that operates through the wage rate. Shocks associated with job changes and unemployment make a large contribution to the variance of career earnings and operate mostly through the job-specific error components in wages and hours.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2005 Meeting Papers with number 259.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed005:259

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Cited by:
  1. Peter Haan & Victoria Prowse, 2011. "Longevity, Life-Cycle Behavior and Pension Reform," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1140, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Arnaud Chéron & Jean‐Olivier Hairault & François Langot, 2011. "Age‐Dependent Employment Protection," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(557), pages 1477-1504, December.
  3. Magnac, Thierry & Pistolesi, Nicolas & Roux, Sébastien, 2013. "Post schooling human capital investments and the life cycle variance of earnings," IDEI Working Papers 765, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  4. Matthew T. Johnson, 2010. "Borrowing Constraints, College Enrollment, and Delayed Entry," Working Papers 2011-006, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group, revised Sep 2012.
  5. Hubener, Andreas & Maurer, Raimond & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2013. "How family status and social security claiming options shape optimal life cycle portfolios," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/07, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  6. Paul Bingley & Lorenzo Cappellari & Niels Westergård‐Nielsen, 2013. "Unemployment Insurance, Wage Dynamics and Inequality Over the Life Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 341-372, 05.
  7. Michele Battisti, 2013. "Individual Wage Growth: The Role of Industry Experience," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 152, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  8. Sabelhaus, John & Song, Jae, 2010. "The great moderation in micro labor earnings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 391-403, May.

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