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Trade Policy, Income Risk, and Welfare

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Author Info
Tom Krebs
Pravin Krishna
William Maloney

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Abstract

This paper studies empirically the relationship between trade policy and individual income risk faced by workers, and uses the estimates of this empirical analysis to evaluate the welfare effect of trade reform. The analysis proceeds in three steps. First, longitudinal data on workers are used to estimate time-varying individual income risk parameters in various manufacturing sectors. Second, the estimated income risk parameters and data on trade barriers are used to analyze the relationship between trade policy and income risk. Finally, a simple dynamic incomplete-market model is used to assess the corresponding welfare costs. In the implementation of this methodology using Mexican data, we find that trade policy changes have a significant short run effect on income risk. Further, while the tariff level has an insignificant mean effect, it nevertheless changes the degree to which macroeconomic shocks affect income risk.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11255.

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Date of creation: Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11255

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Barbara Pfeffer, 2006. "Trade Policy and Risk Diversification," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeitraege 126-06, Universität Siegen, Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Wirtschaftsinformatik und Wirtschaftsrecht. [Downloadable!]
  2. Heathcote, Jonathan & Storesletten, Kjetil & Violante, Giovanni L, 2005. "Insurance and Opportunities: The Welfare Implications of Rising Wage Dispersion," CEPR Discussion Papers 5200, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2006. "Trade Openness and Volatility," Development Working Papers 219, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2007. "Insurance and Opportunities: A Welfare Analysis of Labor Market Risk," NBER Working Papers 13673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Runjuan Liu & Daniel Trefler, 2008. "Much Ado About Nothing: American Jobs and the Rise of Service Outsourcing to China and India," NBER Working Papers 14061, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Nina Pavcnik, 2007. "Distributional Effects of Globalization in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 12885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Di Maio, Michele, 2006. "Uncertainty, trade integration and the optimal level of protection in a Ricardian model with a continuum of goods," MPRA Paper 4645, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Daehaeng Kim & Chul-In Lee, 2007. "Government Size and Intersectoral Income Fluctuation: An International Panel Analysis," IMF Working Papers 07/93, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Arias, Omar & Blom, Andreas & Bosch, Mariano & Cunningham, Wendy & Fiszbein, Ariel & Lopez Acevedo, Gladys & Maloney, William & Saavedra, Jaime & Sanchez-Paramo, Carolina & Santamaria, Mauricio & Siga, 2005. "Pending issues in protection, productivity growth, and poverty reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3799, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Giuseppe Bertola, 2007. "Finance and Welfare States in Globalising Markets," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & Jeremy Lawson (ed.), The Structure and Resilience of the Financial System Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Pravin Krishna & Mine Zeynep Senses, 2009. "International Trade and Labor Income Risk in the United States," NBER Working Papers 14992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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