Trade Shocks and Labor Adjustment: A Structural Empirical Approach
AbstractThe welfare effects of trade shocks depend crucially on the nature and magnitude of the costs workers face in moving between sectors. The existing trade literature does not directly address this, assuming perfect mobility or complete immobility, or adopting reduced-form approaches to estimation. We present a model of dynamic labor adjustment that does, and which is, moreover, consistent with a key empirical fact: that intersectoral gross flows greatly exceed net flows. Using an Euler-type equilibrium condition, we estimate the mean and the variance of workers' switching costs from the U.S. March Current Population Surveys. We estimate high values of both parameters, implying both slow adjustment of the economy, and sharp movements in wages, in response to a trade shock. Simulations of a trade liberalization indicate that despite the high estimated adjustment cost, in terms of lifetime welfare, the liberalization is Pareto-improving. The explanation for this surprising finding -- which would be missed by a reduced-form approach -- is that the high variance to costs ensures high rates of gross flow; this helps spread the liberalization's benefits around.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13465.
Date of creation: Oct 2007
Date of revision:
Note: ITI LS
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Erhan Artu� & Shubham Chaudhuri & John McLaren, 2010. "Trade Shocks and Labor Adjustment: A Structural Empirical Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 1008-45, June.
- F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
- J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Shubham Chaudhuri & Erhan Artuç & John McLaren, 2003.
"Delay and dynamics in labor market adjustment: Simulation results,"
0304-07, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
- Artuç, Erhan & Chaudhuri, Shubham & McLaren, John, 2008. "Delay and dynamics in labor market adjustment: Simulation results," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 1-13, May.
- Erhan Artuç & Shubham Chaudhuri & John McLaren, 2007. "Delay and Dynamics in Labor Market Adjustment: Simulation Results," KoÃ§ University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 0703, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Krueger, Alan B & Summers, Lawrence H, 1988. "Efficiency Wages and the Inter-industry Wage Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(2), pages 259-93, March.
- Hosios, Arthur J, 1990. "Factor Market Search and the Structure of Simple General Equilibrium Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(2), pages 325-55, April.
- Donghoon Lee, 2005. "An Estimable Dynamic General Equilibrium Model Of Work, Schooling, And Occupational Choice," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(1), pages 1-34, 02.
- Moscarini, Giuseppe & Thomsson, Kaj, 2006. "Occupational and Job Mobility in the US," Working Papers 19, Yale University, Department of Economics.
- Orazio Attanasio & Pinelopi Goldberg & Nina Pavcnik, 2003.
"Trade Reforms and Wage Inequiality in Colombia,"
NBER Working Papers
9830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John M. Abowd & Richard B. Freeman, 1991. "Immigration, Trade and the Labor Market," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abow91-1.
- Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1999.
"Sectoral Job Creation and Destruction Responses to Oil Price Changes,"
NBER Working Papers
7095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Davis, Steven J. & Haltiwanger, John, 2001. "Sectoral job creation and destruction responses to oil price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 465-512, December.
- Lori G. Kletzer, 2002. "Imports, Exports, and Jobs: What Does Trade Mean for Employment and Job Loss?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number iej, October.
- Michael P. Keane & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 1995.
"The career decisions of young men,"
559, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Revenga, Ana L, 1992. "Exporting Jobs? The Impact of Import Competition on Employment and Wages in U.S. Manufacturing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(1), pages 255-84, February.
- Robertson, Raymond & Dutkowsky, Donald H., 2002. "Labor adjustment costs in a destination country: the case of Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 29-54, February.
- Kennan,J. & Walker,J.R., 2003.
"The effect of expected income on individual migration decisions,"
7, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- John Kennan & James R. Walker, 2011. "The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(1), pages 211-251, 01.
- John Kennan & James R. Walker, 2003. "The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions," NBER Working Papers 9585, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 2004.
"European Unemployment and Turbulence Revisited in a Matching Model,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 456-468, 04/05.
- Ljungqvist, Lars & Sargent, Thomas J, 2004. "European Unemployment and Turbulence Revisited in a Matching Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 4183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Christopher Magee & Carl Davidson & Steven Matusz, 2005.
"Trade, Turnover, and Tithing,"
- Gordon H. Hanson & Matthew J. Slaughter, 1999. "The Rybczynski Theorem, Factor-Price Equalization, and Immigration: Evidence from U.S. States," NBER Working Papers 7074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gueorgui Kambourov, 2009. "Labour Market Regulations and the Sectoral Reallocation of Workers: The Case of Trade Reforms," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(4), pages 1321-1358.
- Richard B. Freeman & Lawrence F. Katz, 1991. "Industrial Wage and Employment Determination in an Open Economy," NBER Chapters, in: Immigration, Trade and the Labor Market, pages 235-259 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Davidson, Carl & Martin, Lawrence & Matusz, Steven, 1999. "Trade and search generated unemployment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 271-299, August.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.