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This Job is 'Getting Old:' Measuring Changes in Job Opportunities Using Occupational Age Structure

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  • David Autor
  • David Dorn

Abstract

High- and low-wage occupations are expanding rapidly relative to middle-wage occupations in both the U.S. and the E.U. We study the reallocation of workers from middle-skill occupations towards the tails of the occupational skill distribution by analyzing changes in age structure within and across occupations. Because occupations typically expand by hiring young workers and contract by curtailing such hiring, we posit that growing occupations will get younger while shrinking occupations will 'get old.' After verifying this proposition, we apply this observation to local labor markets in the U.S. to test whether markets that were specialized in middle-skilled occupations in 1980 saw a differential movement of both older and younger workers into occupations at the tails of the skill distribution over the subsequent 25 years. Consistent with aggregate trends, employment in initially middle-skill-intensive labor markets hollowed-out between 1980 and 2005. Employment losses among non-college workers in the middle of the occupational skill distribution were almost entirely countered by employment growth in lower-tail occupations. For college workers, employment losses at the middle were offset in roughly equal measures by gains in the upper- and lower-tails of the occupational skill distribution. But gains at the upper-tail were almost entirely limited to young college workers. Consequently, older college workers are increasingly found in lower-skill, lower-paying occupations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14652.

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Date of creation: Jan 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14652

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  1. Profesiones con o sin empleo: la polarización ocupacional
    by Florentino Felgueroso in Nada Es Gratis on 2011-05-08 13:22:40
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Cited by:
  1. Bosch, Nicole & ter Weel, Bas, 2013. "Labour-Market Outcomes of Older Workers in the Netherlands: Measuring Job Prospects Using the Occupational Age Structure," IZA Discussion Papers 7252, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Neil Foster, 2012. "Offshoring and Labour Markets," FIW Specials series 003, FIW.
  3. Dalen, H.P. van & Henkens, K., 2013. "Dilemmas Of Downsizing During the Great Recession: Crisis Strategies of European Employers," Discussion Paper 2013-026, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  4. Warnke, Arne Jonas & Ederer, Peer & Schuller, Philipp, 2012. "Cognitive skills, tasks and job mobility," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62026, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  5. Regula Geel & Uschi Backes-Gellner, 2009. "Occupational Mobility Within and Between Skill Clusters: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Skill-Weights Approach," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0047, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU).
  6. Javier Ortega & Gregory Verdugo, 2011. "Immigration and the Occupational Choice of Natives: A Factor Proportions Approach," CEP Discussion Papers dp1043, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  7. repec:aia:ginidp:dp26 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Wielandt, Hanna & Senftleben, Charlotte, 2012. "The Polarization of Employment in German Local Labor Markets," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62063, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  9. Allegretto, Sylvia & Dube, Arindrajit & Reich, Michael, 2009. "Spatial Heterogeneity and Minimum Wages: Employment Estimates for Teens Using Cross-State Commuting Zones," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt1x99m65f, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
  10. Guido Matias Cortes, 2012. "Where Have the Routine Workers Gone? A Study of Polarization Using Panel Data," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 1224, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  11. Autor, David & Dorn, David, 2012. "The Growth of Low Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the U.S. Labor Market," IZA Discussion Papers 7068, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. Barbara Pertold-Gebicka, 2010. "Measuring Skill Intensity of Occupations with Imperfect Substitutability Across Skill Types," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp421, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  13. Gaaitzen De Vries & Neil Foster & Robert Stehrer, 2012. "Offshoring and the Skill Structure of Labour Demand," wiiw Working Papers 86, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  14. Rita Asplund & Erling Barth & Per Lundborg & Kjersti Misje Nilsen, 2011. "Polarization of the Nordic Labour Markets," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 24(2), pages 87-110, Autumn.
  15. Francesco Bogliacino & Lucchese, M., 2011. "GINI DP 26: Endogenous Skill Biased Technical Change: Testing for Demand Pull Effect," GINI Discussion Papers 26, AIAS, Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Labour Studies.
  16. Antonio accetturo & Alberto Dalmazzo & Guido De Blasio, 2011. "Skill Polarization in Local Labour Markets under Share-Altering Technical Change," Department of Economics University of Siena 625, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
  17. Nicole Bosch & Bas ter Weel, 2013. "Labour-market outcomes of older workers in the Netherlands: Measuring job prospects using the occupational age structure," CPB Discussion Paper 234, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

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