This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

How Well do Individuals Predict the Selling Prices of their Homes?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Hugo Benítez-Silva
Selcuk Eren
Frank Heiland
Sergi Jiménez-Martín

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Self-reported home values are widely used as a measure of housing wealth by researchers employing a variety of data sets and studying a number of different individual and household level decisions. The accuracy of this measure is an open empirical question, and requires some type of market assessment of the values reported. In this research, we study the predictive power of self-reported housing wealth when estimating sales prices utilizing the Health and Retirement Study. We find that homeowners, on average, overestimate the value of their properties by between 5% and 10%. We also find a strong correlation between accuracy and the economic conditions (measured by the prevalent interest rate, the growth of household income, and the growth of median housing prices) at the time of the purchase of the property. While most individuals overestimate the value of their properties, those who bought during more difficult economic times tend to be more accurate, and in some cases even underestimate the value of their house. This cyclicality of the overestimation of house prices can provide some clues regarding the reasons for the difficulties currently faced by many homeowners.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.fedea.es/pub/Papers/2008/dt2008-10.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Working Papers with number 2008-10.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Feb 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2008-10

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.fedea.es

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Carmen Arias).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-57, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2002. "Instrumental variables and GMM: Estimation and testing," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 545, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 14 Feb 2003. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Olsen, Randall J, 1980. "A Least Squares Correction for Selectivity Bias," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(7), pages 1815-20, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ben S. Bernanke, 1990. "On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
    Other versions:
  5. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Reichert, Alan K, 1990. "The Impact of Interest Rates, Income, and Employment upon Regional Housing Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 373-91, December.
  7. Vladimir Klyuev & Paul S. Mills, 2006. "Is Housing Wealth an 'ATM'? The Relationship Between Household Wealth, Home Equity Withdrawal, and Saving Rates," IMF Working Papers 06/162, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Motohiro Yogo, 2004. "Estimating the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution When Instruments Are Weak," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 797-810, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," NBER Working Papers 13518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    Other versions:
  11. Robert J. Shiller & Karl E. Case, 1988. "The Behavior of Home Buyers in Boom and Post-Boom Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 890, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Goodman, John Jr. & Ittner, John B., 1992. "The accuracy of home owners' estimates of house value," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 339-357, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Jonathan Skinner, 1989. "Housing Wealth and Aggregate Saving," NBER Working Papers 2842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Brian Bucks & Karen Pence, 2006. "Do homeowners know their house values and mortgage terms?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  15. Englund, Peter & Ioannides, Yannis M., 1997. "House Price Dynamics: An International Empirical Perspective," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 119-136, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Stock, James H & Wright, Jonathan H & Yogo, Motohiro, 2002. "A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 518-29, October.
  17. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  19. Kostas Tsatsaronis & Haibin Zhu, 2004. "What drives housing price dynamics: cross-country evidence," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March. [Downloadable!]
  20. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer, 2005. "The Rationality of Retirement Expectations and the Role of New Information," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 587-592, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Patterson, Kerry D & Pesaran, Bahram, 1992. "The Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution in Consumption in the United States and the United Kingdom," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 573-84, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Harris, Jack C, 1989. "The Effect of Real Rates of Interest on Housing Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 47-60, February.
  23. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
    Other versions:
  24. Karl Case & John Quigley & Robert Shiller, 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," Advances in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 5(1), pages 1235-1235. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1995. "Selection corrections for panel data models under conditional mean independence assumptions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 115-132, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2007. "Enhanced routines for instrumental variables/GMM estimation and testing," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 667, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 05 Sep 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  27. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Sumit Agarwal, 2007. "The Impact of Homeowners' Housing Wealth Misestimation on Consumption and Saving Decisions," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 135-154, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Gustman, Alan L. & Steinmeier, Thomas L., 1999. "Effects of pensions on savings: analysis with data from the health and retirement study," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50, pages 271-324, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? RePEc and its associated services are free for contributors and users, and do not accept any advertising.

This page was last updated on 2008-7-10.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.