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Expectation formation of older married couples and the rational expectations hypothesis

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  • Benitez-Silva, Hugo
  • Dwyer, Debra S.

Abstract

This paper tests the Rational Expectations (RE) hypothesis regarding retirement expectations of married older American couples, controlling for sample selection and reporting biases. In prior research we found that individual retirement expectation formation was consistent with the Rational Expectation hypothesis, but in that work spousal considerations were not analyzed. In this research we take advantage of panel data on expectations to test the RE hypothesis among married individuals as well as joint expectations among couples. We find that regardless of whether we assume that married individuals form their own expectations taking spouse’s information as exogenous, or the reports of the couple are the result of a joint expectation formation process, their expectations are consistent with the RE hypothesis. Our results support a wide variety of models in economics that assume rational behavior for married couples.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Labour Economics.

Volume (Year): 13 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 191-218

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Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:13:y:2006:i:2:p:191-218

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Cited by:
  1. de Grip, Andries & Fouarge, Didier & Montizaan, Raymond, 2013. "How Sensitive Are Individual Retirement Expectations to Raising the Retirement Age?," IZA Discussion Papers 7269, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Hugo Benitez-Silva & Huan Ni, 2007. "Health Status and Health Dynamics in an Empirical Model of Expected Longevity," Department of Economics Working Papers 07-04, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
  3. Deborah A. Cobb-Clark & Steve Stillman, 2006. "The Retirement Expectations of Middle-Aged Individuals," CEPR Discussion Papers 540, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
  4. Nabanita Datta Gupta & Mona Larsen, 2010. "The impact of health on individual retirement plans: self-reported versus diagnostic measures," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(7), pages 792-813.
  5. Hugo Benitez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Tom Muench, 2005. "Expectations in Micro Data: Rationality Revisited," Department of Economics Working Papers 05-04, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
  6. Beni­tez-Silva, Hugo & Ni, Huan, 2008. "Health status and health dynamics in an empirical model of expected longevity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 564-584, May.
  7. Hugo Benitez-Silva & Na Yin, 2007. "An Empirical Study of the Effects of Social Security Reforms on Claming Behavior and Benefits Receipt Using Aggregate and Public-Use Administrative Micro Data," Department of Economics Working Papers 07-05, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
  8. Hugo Benitez-Silva & Huan Ni, 2005. "Health Status and Health Dynamics in an Empirical Model of Expected Longevity," Department of Economics Working Papers 05-14, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
  9. Barrett, Alan & Mosca, Irene, 2012. "Announcing an Increase in the State Pension Age and the Recession: Which Mattered More for Expected Retirement Ages?," IZA Discussion Papers 6325, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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