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Expectation Formation of Older Married Couples and the Rational Expectations Hypothesis

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  • Hugo Benítez-Silva

    (SUNY–Stony Brook)

  • Debra S. Dwyer

    (SUNY–Stony Brook)

Abstract

This paper tests the Rational Expectations (RE) hypothesis regarding retirement expectations of married older American couples, controlling for sample selection and reporting biases. In prior research we found that individual retirement expectation formation was consistent with the Rational Expectation hypothesis, but in that work spousal considerations were not analyzed. In this research we take advantage of panel data on expectations to test the RE hypothesis among married individuals as well as joint expectations among couples. We find that regardless of whether we assume that married individuals form their own expectations taking spouse’s information as exogenous, or the reports of the couple are the result of a joint expectation formation process, their expectations are consistent with the RE hypothesis. Our results support a wide variety of models in economics that assume rational behavior for married couples.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center in its series Working Papers with number wp062.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mrr:papers:wp062

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. & Stillman, Steven, 2006. "The Retirement Expectations of Middle-Aged Individuals," IZA Discussion Papers 2449, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Nabanita Datta Gupta & Mona Larsen, 2010. "The impact of health on individual retirement plans: self-reported versus diagnostic measures," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(7), pages 792-813.
  3. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas Muench, 2008. "Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 381-416, March.
  4. Hugo Benitez-Silva & Huan Ni, 2005. "Health Status and Health Dynamics in an Empirical Model of Expected Longevity," Department of Economics Working Papers 05-14, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
  5. Andries de Grip & Didier Fouarge & Raymond Montizaan, 2013. "How Sensitive are Individual Retirement Expectations to Raising the Retirement Age?," De Economist, Springer, vol. 161(3), pages 225-251, September.
  6. Beni­tez-Silva, Hugo & Ni, Huan, 2008. "Health status and health dynamics in an empirical model of expected longevity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 564-584, May.
  7. Hugo Benitez-Silva & Na Yin, 2007. "An Empirical Study of the Effects of Social Security Reforms on Claming Behavior and Benefits Receipt Using Aggregate and Public-Use Administrative Micro Data," Department of Economics Working Papers 07-05, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
  8. Hugo Benitez-Silva & Huan Ni, 2007. "Health Status and Health Dynamics in an Empirical Model of Expected Longevity," Department of Economics Working Papers 07-04, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
  9. Barrett, Alan & Mosca, Irene, 2012. "Announcing an Increase in the State Pension Age and the Recession: Which Mattered More for Expected Retirement Ages?," IZA Discussion Papers 6325, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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