Expected and realized income changes: Evidence from the Dutch socio-economic panel
AbstractIncome expectations play a central role in household decision making. In the life cycle model for example, consumption and savings decisions reflect expectations of future income. In empirical applications where direct information on expectations is not available, it is usually assumed that expectations are rational, and reflected by observed future realizations. In this paper, we analyze direct subjective information on expected changes of household income in one panel wave of Dutch families. First, we describe these data and investigate how the expectations can be explained by, among other variables, income changes in the past. Second, we combine these data with information on realized income changes in the next panel wave, and analyze the dierences between expected and realized changes. We find that, on average, households underestimate their future incomes signiantly. In particular, this holds for those families whose income has fallen in the past.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.
Volume (Year): 32 (1997)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo
Other versions of this item:
- Das, J.W.M. & Soest, A.H.O. van, 1997. "Expected and realized income changes: Evidence from the Dutch socio-economic panel," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-121744, Tilburg University.
- Das, J.W.M. & Soest, A.H.O. van, 1995. "Expected and realized income changes: Evidence from the Dutch socio-economic panel," Discussion Paper 1995-52, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
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