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Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations

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  • Jeff Dominitz
  • Charles F. Manski

Abstract

We have collected data on the one-year-ahead income expectations of members of American households in our Survey of Economic Expectations (SEE), a module of a national continuous telephone survey conducted at the University of Wisconsin. The income-expectations questions take this form: `What do you think is the percent chance (or what are the chances out of 100) that your total household income, before taxes, will be less than Y over the next 12 months?' We use the responses to a sequence of such questions posed for different income thresholds Y to estimate each respondent's subjective probability distribution for next year's household income. We use the estimates to study the cross-sectional variation in income expectations for one year into the future.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4937.

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Date of creation: Nov 1994
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Publication status: published as JASA, Vol. 92, no. 439 (September 1997): 855-867.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4937

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  1. Robert E. Hall & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1980. "The Sensitivity of Consumption to Transitory Income: Estimates from Panel Data on Households," NBER Working Papers 0505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Karen E. Dynan, 1993. "How prudent are consumers?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 135, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Eliciting Student Expectations Of The Returns To Schooling," Econometrics, EconWPA 9411002, EconWPA.
  4. Jonathan S. Skinner, 1987. "Risky Income, Life Cycle Consumption, and Precautionary Savings," NBER Working Papers 2336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Christopher D. Carroll, 1992. "The Buffer-Stock Theory of Saving: Some Macroeconomic Evidence," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(2), pages 61-156.
  6. F. Thomas Juster, 1966. "Consumer Buying Intentions and Purchase Probability: An Experiment in Survey Design," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number just66-2.
  7. Giucca, P. & Jappelli, T. & Terlizzese, D., 1992. "Earning Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving," Papers, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi 161, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  8. Manski, C.F., 1989. "The Use Of Intentions Data To Predict Behaviour : A Best- Case Analysis," Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems 8905, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  9. Manski, C.F., 1991. "Adolescent Econometricians : How Do Youth Infer the Returns to Schooling," Working papers, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems 9110, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  10. Caballero, Ricardo J., 1990. "Consumption puzzles and precautionary savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 113-136, January.
  11. Dynan, Karen E, 1993. "How Prudent Are Consumers?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 1104-13, December.
  12. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Optimal Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deviations from Certainty Equivalence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 275-98, May.
  13. Michael D. Hurd & Kathleen McGarry, 1993. "Evaluation of Subjective Probability Distributions in the HRS," NBER Working Papers 4560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. George B. Roberts, Chairman, Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research, 1960. "The Quality and Economic Significance of Anticipations Data," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number univ60-1.
  15. MaCurdy, Thomas E., 1982. "The use of time series processes to model the error structure of earnings in a longitudinal data analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 83-114, January.
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