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Precautionary Saving and Consumption Fluctuations

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Author Info
Jonathan Parker
Bruce Preston

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Abstract

This paper uses data on the expenditures of households to explain movements in the average growth rate of consumption in the U.S. from the beginning of 1982 to the end of 1997. We propose and implement a decomposition of consumption growth into series representing four proximate causes. These are new information, and three causes of predictable consumption growth: intertemporal substitution, changes in the preferences for consumption, and incomplete markets for consumption insurance. Incomplete markets for trading consumption in future states leads to statistically significant and countercyclical movements in expected consumption growth. The economic importance of precautionary saving rivals that of the real interest rate, but the relative importance of each source of movement in the volatility of consumption is not precisely measured.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9196.

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Date of creation: Sep 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9196

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - Intertemporal Consumer Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving

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  35. Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1995. "Is Consumption Growth Consistent with Intertemporal Optimization? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(6), pages 1121-57, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Olga gorbachev, 2007. "Did Household Consumption Become More Volatile?," ESE Discussion Papers 161, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
  2. Shawn Ni, 2007. "Excess Sensitivity in Consumption without Liquidity Constraint: Evidence from Monthly Household Panel Data," Working Papers 0714, Department of Economics, University of Missouri. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2007. "Expectations, Shocks, and Asset Returns," NIPE Working Papers 29/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  4. Martin Salm, 2006. "Can Subjective Mortality Expectations and Stated Preferences Explain Varying Consumption and Saving Behaviors among the Elderly?," IZA Discussion Papers 2467, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. L. Pozzi, 2005. "Income uncertainty and aggregate consumption," Research series 200511-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  6. João Sousa Andrade, 2006. "Mobilidade do Capital e Sustentabilidade Externa: uma aplicação da tese de F-H a Portugal (1910-2004)," GEMF Working Papers 2006-04, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra. [Downloadable!]
  7. James Feigenbaum, 2005. "Heterogeneity vs Uncertainty in Anticipation of a Borrowing Constraint," Working Papers 230, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2005. [Downloadable!]
  8. Lorenzo Pozzi, 2007. "Idiosyncratic Labour Income Risk and Aggregate Consumption: an Unobserved Component Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-069/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  9. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni, 2007. "Liquidity and Trading Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 13204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Yasuyuki Sawada & Jeong-Joon Lee, 2006. "The Degree of Precautionary Saving: A Reexamination," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-448, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thijs van Rens, 2007. "Heterogeneous Life-Cycle Profiles, Income Risk and Consumption Inequality," IZA Discussion Papers 3239, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Louis Eeckhoudt & Harris Schlesinger, 2008. "Changes in Risk and the Demand for Saving," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 2001. "The Empirical Importance of Precautionary Saving," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 406-412, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Christopher D. Carroll & Patrick Toche, 2009. "A Tractable Model of Buffer Stock Saving," NBER Working Papers 15265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. João Sousa Andrade, 2007. "L’Intégration Européenne et la Soutenabilité Externe de l’Union Européenne: une application de la thèse de Feldstein-Horioka," GEMF Working Papers 2007-05, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra. [Downloadable!]
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