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Consumption and aggregate constraints : evidence from U.S. states and Canadian provinces

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Charlotte Ostergaard
Bent E. Sorensen
Oved Yosha

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Abstract

State-level consumption exhibits excess sensitivity to lagged income to the same extent as US aggregate data, but state-specific (idiosyncratic) consumption exhibits substantially less sensitivity to lagged state-specific income---a result that also holds for Canadian provinces. We propose the following interpretation: borrowing and lending in response to changes in consumer demand is easier for an individual US state than it is for the US as a whole. The PIH may thus be a good model for describing the reaction of consumption to idiosyncratic disposable income shocks even if it fails at the aggregate US level. Further analysis, centered on the persistence of income shocks and on the consumption/income ratio, is consistent with this interpretation but suggests that the PIH still requires qualification. We contrast our results with tests of full inter-state risk sharing.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its series Research Working Paper with number RWP 00-04.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp00-04

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Keywords: Income ; Consumption (Economics);

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  1. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Reshef, Ariell & Sorensen, Bent E & Yosha, Oved, 2006. "Why Does Capital Flow to Rich States?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5635, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Balli, Faruk & Sorensen, Bent E., 2007. "Risk Sharing among OECD and EU Countries: The Role of Capital Gains, Capital Income, Transfers, and Saving," MPRA Paper 10223, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Joseph DeJuan & Maria J. Luengo-Prado, 2005. "Consumption and Aggregate Constraints: International Evidence," Macroeconomics 0501018, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Kris Jacobs & Stephane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2004. "Market Incompleteness and the Equity Premium Puzzle: Evidence from State-Level Data," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-54, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Stephane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2002. "The States vs. the states: On the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles in the U.S," Cahiers de recherche du Département des sciences économiques, UQAM 20-17, Université du Québec à Montréal, Département des sciences économiques, revised Oct 2002. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2008. "The Feldstein-Horioka fact," Working Paper Series 873, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2002. "Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance and Risk Premia," Macroeconomics 0211008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Pierfederico Asdrubali & Soyoung Kim, 2005. "Incomplete Intertemporal Consumption Smoothing and Incomplete Risksharing," International Finance 0506010, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Faruk Balli & Bent E. Sørensen, 2006. "The Impact of the EMU on Channels of Risk Sharing between Member Countries," Papers of the Annual IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics, in: Proceedings of the Conference on Human and Economic Resources, pages 399-429 Izmir University of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Oguz Esen & Ayla Ogus (ed.), 2006. "Proceedings of the International Conference on Human and Economic Resources," Proceedings of the IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics, Izmir University of Economics, number 2006, November. [Downloadable!]
  11. Bent E. Sorensen & Maria J. Luengo-Prado, 2004. "The Buffer Stock Model and the Aggregate Propensity to Consume," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 457, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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