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Unanticipated Aggregate Disturbances and Tests of the Life-Cycle Consumption Model Using Panel Data

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  • Mariger, Randall P
  • Shaw, Kathryn

Abstract

Several recent studies have used data on food consumption from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to test t he rational expectations life-cycle hypothesis against the alternative of prevalent liquidity constraints. These tests invoke the rational expectations restriction that income forecast errors are independent of lagged information. This restriction, however, applies only in a time-series context. It is possible that unanticipated macroeconomic disturbances cause forecast errors to be correlated.with lagged information in a cross-section of families. The authors present evidence of such a correlation in the PSID data, show that this correlation biases previous tests of the life-cycle model toward rejection, and derive a proper test of the life-cycle model using pa nel data. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

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  • Mariger, Randall P & Shaw, Kathryn, 1993. "Unanticipated Aggregate Disturbances and Tests of the Life-Cycle Consumption Model Using Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 48-56, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:75:y:1993:i:1:p:48-56
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    Cited by:

    1. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian & Fatma Burcu Kiraz, 2009. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1331-1363, October.
    2. Jan Tin, 2000. "Life-cycle hypothesis, propensities to save, and demand for financial assets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 24(2), pages 110-121, June.
    3. Karen E. Dynan, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumer Preferences: Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 391-406, June.
    4. Souleles, Nicholas S., 2002. "Consumer response to the Reagan tax cuts," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 99-120, July.
    5. Charlotte Ostergaard & Bent E. Serensen & Oved Yosha, 2002. "Consumption and Aggregate Constraints: Evidence from U.S. States and Canadian Provinces," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(3), pages 634-645, June.
    6. Ostergaard, C. & Sorensen, B.E. & Yosha, O., 1998. "Permanent Income, Consumption, and Aggregate Constraints: Evidence from US States," Papers 02-98, Tel Aviv.
    7. Charles Brown & Greg J. Duncan & Frank P. Stafford, 1996. "Data Watch: The Panel Study of Income Dynamics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 155-168, Spring.
    8. David J. McKenzie, 2001. "Consumption Growth in a Booming Economy: Taiwan 1976-96," Working Papers 823, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
    9. Susan Dynarski & Jonathan Gruber, 1997. "Can Families Smooth Variable Earnings?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 229-303.
    10. Parker, J.A., 1997. "The Reaction of Household Consumption to Predictable Changes in Payroll Tax Rates," Working papers 9724, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    11. Laura Serlenga, 2002. "Three Alternative Approaches to Test the Permanent Income Hypothesis in Dynamic Panels," SERIES 0005, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza - Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro", revised Feb 2002.
    12. Jonathan A. Parker, 1999. "The Reaction of Household Consumption to Predictable Changes in Social Security Taxes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 959-973, September.
    13. Striani, Fabrizio, 2023. "Life-cycle consumption and life insurance: Empirical evidence from Italian Survey," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 619(C).
    14. Michael Keane & Timothy Neal, 2021. "A Practical Guide to Weak Instruments," Discussion Papers 2021-05b, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    15. Jaoaqin Alegre & Llorenc Pou, 2008. "Further evidence of excess sensitivity of consumption? Nonseparability among goods and heterogeneity across households," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(7), pages 931-948.
    16. DeJuan, Joseph P. & J. Seater, John, 1999. "The permanent income hypothesis:: Evidence from the consumer expenditure survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 351-376, April.
    17. Ziliak, James P., 1998. "Does the choice of consumption measure matter? An application to the permanent-income hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 201-216, February.
    18. Keane, Michael & Neal, Timothy, 2023. "Instrument strength in IV estimation and inference: A guide to theory and practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1625-1653.
    19. McKenzie, David J., 2006. "Precautionary saving and consumption growth in Taiwan," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 84-101.
    20. Hsieh, Chang-Tai & Shimizutani, Satoshi & Hori, Masahiro, 2010. "Did Japan's shopping coupon program increase spending?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(7-8), pages 523-529, August.

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