We report here on the design and first application of an interactive computer-administered personal interview (CAPI) survey eliciting from high school students and college undergraduates their expectations of the income they would earn if they were to complete different levels of schooling. We also elicit respondents' beliefs about current earnings distributions. Whereas a scattering of earlier studies have elicited point expectations of earnings unconditional on future schooling, we elicit subjective earnings distributions under alternative scenarios for future earnings. We find that respondents, even ones as young as high school sophomores, are willing and able to respond meaningfully to questions eliciting their earnings expectations in probabilistic form. Respondents vary considerably in their earnings expectations but there is a common belief that the returns to a college education are positive and that earnings rise between ages 30 and 40. There is a common belief that one's own future earnings are rather uncertain. Moreover, respondents tend to overestimate the current degree of earnings inequality in American society.
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number
9411002.
Find related papers by JEL classification: C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
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