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Eliciting Student Expectations Of The Returns To Schooling

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Author Info
Jeff Dominitz (University ofMichigan)
Charles F. Manski (University of Wisconsin)

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Abstract

We report here on the design and first application of an interactive computer-administered personal interview (CAPI) survey eliciting from high school students and college undergraduates their expectations of the income they would earn if they were to complete different levels of schooling. We also elicit respondents' beliefs about current earnings distributions. Whereas a scattering of earlier studies have elicited point expectations of earnings unconditional on future schooling, we elicit subjective earnings distributions under alternative scenarios for future earnings. We find that respondents, even ones as young as high school sophomores, are willing and able to respond meaningfully to questions eliciting their earnings expectations in probabilistic form. Respondents vary considerably in their earnings expectations but there is a common belief that the returns to a college education are positive and that earnings rise between ages 30 and 40. There is a common belief that one's own future earnings are rather uncertain. Moreover, respondents tend to overestimate the current degree of earnings inequality in American society.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 9411002.

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Date of creation: 15 Nov 1994
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:9411002

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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General
C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs

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  1. Charles F. Manski, 1993. "Adolescent Econometricians: How Do Youth Infer the Returns to Schooling?," NBER Chapters, in: Studies of Supply and Demand in Higher Education, pages 43-60 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," NBER Working Papers 4937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Willis, Robert J & Rosen, Sherwin, 1979. "Education and Self-Selection," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages S7-36, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. repec:att:wimass:199217 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. repec:att:wimass:19895 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Charles T. Clotfelter & Michael Rothschild, 1993. "Studies of Supply and Demand in Higher Education," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number clot93-1.
  7. repec:att:wimass:199110 is not listed on IDEAS
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