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Subjective Health Expectations

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Author Info

  • Kim P. Huynh

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Indiana University - Bloomington)

  • Juergen Jung

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Towson University)

Abstract

Subjective health expectations are derived using data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). We first use a Bayesian updating mechanism to correct for focal point responses and reporting errors of the original health expectations variable. We then test the quality of the health expectations measure and describe its correlation with various health indicators and other individual characteristics. Our results indicate that subjective health expectations do contain additional information that is not incorporated in subjective mortality expectations and that the rational expectations assumption cannot be rejected for subjective health expectations. Finally, the data suggest that individuals younger than 70 years of age seem to be more pessimistic about their health than individuals in their 70's.

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File URL: http://www.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2010-08.pdf
File Function: First version, 2009
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Towson University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2010-08.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2010
Date of revision: May 2014
Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2010-08

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Postal: Towson, Maryland 21252-0001
Phone: 410-704-2959
Fax: 410-704-3424
Web page: http://www.towson.edu/cbe/economics/
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Related research

Keywords: Subjective Health Expectations; Rational Health Expectations; Work Limiting Health Problems; Bayesian Updating of Expectations.;

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  1. Mario Cleves & William W. Gould & Roberto G. Gutierrez & Yulia Marchenko, 2010. "An Introduction to Survival Analysis Using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, edition 3, number saus3, March.
  2. Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2008. "A parsimonious model of subjective life expectancy," Working Papers 74, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  3. Li Gan & Michael D. Hurd & Daniel L. McFadden, 2005. "Individual Subjective Survival Curves," NBER Chapters, in: Analyses in the Economics of Aging, pages 377-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Todd Elder, 2007. "Subjective Survival Probabilities in the Health and Retirement Study: Systematic Biases and Predictive Validity," Working Papers wp159, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  5. Hurd, Michael D, 1989. "Mortality Risk and Bequests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 779-813, July.
  6. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, 09.
  7. V. Kerry Smith & Donald H. Taylor & Frank A. Sloan, 2001. "Longevity Expectations and Death: Can People Predict Their Own Demise?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1126-1134, September.
  8. Hugo Benítez-Silva & Debra S. Dwyer & Wayne-Roy Gayle & Thomas J. Muench, 2003. "Expectations in Micro Data: Rationality Revisited," Working Papers wp059, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
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Cited by:
  1. Kuo-Liang Chang & George Langelett & Andrew Waugh, 2011. "Health, Health Insurance, and Decision to Exit from Farming," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 356-372, June.
  2. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Rogier J.D. Potter van Loon, 2013. "Wall Street vs. Main Street: An Evaluation of Probabilities," NBER Working Papers 19103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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