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Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity

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  • Jeffrey M. Wooldridge

    (Department of Economics, Michigan State University, USA)

Abstract

I study a simple, widely applicable approach to handling the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear unobserved effects models. Rather than attempting to obtain the joint distribution of all outcomes of the endogenous variables, I propose finding the distribution conditional on the initial value (and the observed history of strictly exogenous explanatory variables). The approach is flexible, and results in simple estimation strategies for at least three leading dynamic, nonlinear models: probit, Tobit and Poisson regression. I treat the general problem of estimating average partial effects, and show that simple estimators exist for important special cases. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.770
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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2005-v20.1/
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 20 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 39-54

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:20:y:2005:i:1:p:39-54

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  1. Arellano, M & Carrasco, R, 1996. "Binary Choice Panel Data Models with Predetermined Variables," Papers 9618, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  2. Hausman, Jerry & Hall, Bronwyn H & Griliches, Zvi, 1984. "Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R&D Relationship," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 909-38, July.
  3. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1995. "Selection corrections for panel data models under conditional mean independence assumptions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 115-132, July.
  4. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2002. "Inverse probability weighted M-estimators for sample selection, attrition and stratification," CeMMAP working papers CWP11/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  5. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:5:p:667-78 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. R Blundell & Steven Bond, . "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data model," Economics Papers W14&104., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  7. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1997. "Multiplicative Panel Data Models Without the Strict Exogeneity Assumption," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(05), pages 667-678, October.
  8. Newey, Whitney K. & McFadden, Daniel, 1986. "Large sample estimation and hypothesis testing," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 36, pages 2111-2245 Elsevier.
  9. Bo E. Honoré & Ekaterini Kyriazidou, 2000. "Panel Data Discrete Choice Models with Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(4), pages 839-874, July.
  10. Hahn, Jinyong, 1999. "How informative is the initial condition in the dynamic panel model with fixed effects?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 309-326, December.
  11. M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  12. Erdem, Tulin & Sun, Baohong, 2001. "Testing for Choice Dynamics in Panel Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 142-52, April.
  13. Ahn, Seung C. & Schmidt, Peter, 1995. "Efficient estimation of models for dynamic panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 5-27, July.
  14. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  15. John F. Geweke & Michael P. Keane, 1997. "Mixture of normals probit models," Staff Report 237, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  16. Honore, Bo E., 1993. "Orthogonality conditions for Tobit models with fixed effects and lagged dependent variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1-2), pages 35-61, September.
  17. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2001. "Asymptotic Properties Of Weighted M-Estimators For Standard Stratified Samples," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(02), pages 451-470, April.
  18. Chamberlain, Gary, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 225-38, January.
  19. Gallant, A Ronald & Nychka, Douglas W, 1987. "Semi-nonparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 363-90, March.
  20. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2000. "A framework for estimating dynamic, unobserved effects panel data models with possible feedback to future explanatory variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 245-250, September.
  21. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
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